Alan Zendell, October 7, 2023

The United States and Saudi Arabia have been strange dance partners for several decades. Are they friends? Enemies? Business Partners?

The Saudis have always acted in their own interest, as has the government of Israel, although in the latter case it’s not clear that the actions of the various incarnations of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have acted in the country’s interests as much as in the interests of his Likud Party’s right-wing coalition. If that sounds like Donald Trump’s presidency, it’s not coincidental. A few years ago, when both leaders found themselves in serious legal jeopardy, they were each other’s principal supporters. They’re both populists, ruthless politicians, and seemingly willing to do whatever it takes to hold on to power.

Thirty years ago, two critical events impacted Israel’s future. One was the Yom Kippur War, in which a surprise attack by Egypt and Syria nearly overwhelmed Israel. The other was the collapse of the Soviet Union. Revolutionary movements like Hamas are big on symbolism. Thus, Hamas chose to attack Israel, today, on the 30th anniversary of the first Yom Kippur War.

The Soviet Union’s collapse shifted the balance of political power in Israel. Israelis were weary of forty-five years of war with their Arab neighbors, and a younger generation who favored accommodation with Arab governments were on the cusp of having a voting majority. In 1993, Israel’s population was about five million. But the collapse of the Soviet Union enabled millions of Jews to leave, and three million of them chose to emigrate to Israel. Having escaped from the oppression of communism, they were determined to never be under anyone’s heel again, and their militancy changed Israel’s politics from rapprochement to right-wing extremism. They solidified Netanyahu’s political base, and he’s played to it ever since.

Saudi Arabia has been the lynchpin of OPEC since its formation in 1960, which gave it enormous power to control the price and flow of the oil most of the world depended on. But as a Sunni Muslim nation, relations between them and the Shia Muslims, led by Iran, were almost as hostile as their mutual hate of Israel. That resulted in the Iran-Iraq war that lasted for nearly the entire decade of the 1980s, in which the United States sided with the Sunni Iraqis, and by implication the Saudis. In 1990, the relatively secular Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait, which was a direct threat to Saudi Arabia.

Suddenly, the United States and Saudi Arabia were allies, flying bombing sorties together and making a public show of mutual support. A couple of years later, however, when Israel was attacked on Yom Kippur and the Saudis had an opportunity to play a constructive role in a peace settlement, they chose to sit on the sidelines in silent support of Egypt and Syria. Inserting itself into that conflict was not in the interest of their control of the world’s oil, on which their entire economy depended.

What a difference another thirty years made. The worldwide shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy completely changed Saudi priorities. Demand for oil will decrease continually through 2050, and that will devastate the Saudi economy.

Knowing this, the Biden administration initiated accommodation talks between Saudi Arabia, Israel, and some other interested partners. Earlier peace agreements between Israel, Egypt, and Jordan had proved beneficial to all sides. But for years Washington had buzzed about the close relationship between the Bushes and the Saudi royal family, and we learned that most of the nine-eleven terrorists were Saudis, as was their leader, Osama bin Laden. Finally, there was the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, which led straight to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known popularly as MBS.

The Saudis weren’t particularly helpful when Russia began reducing oil shipments to Europe; in fact, they’ve kept prices at near record levels for most of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Again, it’s reasonable to ask, are they our friends, our enemies, or a trading partner that always puts itself first? If the Saudis recognize that their best future includes a stable peace in the Mideast, along with the ability to benefit from Israeli technology, they must be aware that Politico and other sources believe Hamas may have timed its deadly attack on Israeli civilians specifically with the intent of scuttling any agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s record on Israeli-Palestinian relations has been abysmal. He has undermined or discouraged every proposed agreement put before him, which gives credibility to the Saudi claim that Israel has only itself to blame for the attack. Perhaps, but a terrorist attack that kills or injures thousands of innocent civilians has no justification and must be condemned by every neighboring nation. It’s time for MBS to stand up and accept responsibility for being a world leader whose goal is peace and stop supporting the destruction of Israel.

Whatever else he is, MBS is smart and well educated. He needs to make it clear that terrorist actions by Hamas (and Hezbolah) will not be tolerated, and the perpetrators will be treated as murderers and war criminals. Then he can go back to the negotiating table and save his country’s future, along with the entire Mideast’s.