Alan Zendell, August 6, 2024

“Stock markets are crashing, jobs numbers are terrible, we are heading to World War III, and we have two of the most incompetent ‘leaders’ in history.” That’s what Donald Trump posted when pre-opening stock movements augured a bad trading day on August 5th. Sounds pretty apocalyptic, but then, he’s been telling us the sky was falling for nine years, though he’s unclear about why and when.

First it was immigrants’ fault. Then it was China’s unfair trade policies, Biden’s infrastructure spending, inflation, and NATO’s unwillingness to cede Ukraine to Vladimir Putin. Savvy investors know markets are on hair triggers, a condition that’s exaggerated by program trading – computer-driven buy and sell orders that react to certain triggers, often incorrectly. Things like program trading feed fears of an AI revolution. Markets tend to overreact to unexpected stimuli and most often correct themselves when their panic responses turn out to be baseless.

Japan’s markets crashed first, for reasons unrelated to Friday’s disappointing jobs numbers in the U. S. Today, the markets quickly regained more than half of what they lost, and Japan’s markets gained back 80% of their losses. So, Donald, the world will not end this week, and it has nothing to do with you. June’s job numbers were unexpectedly high, and they were very good throughout the Spring quarter. These things tend to average out. By September, we’ll be looking at better than average monthly job growth for all of 2024.

Trump’s knee-jerk reaction to the one-day crash was typical. He baselessly lashed out at Kamala Harris. He’s gotten away with hyperbole and outright lies since he entered the political spotlight, but everyone except his angry base is tiring of it. If yesterday had really been the start of a global economic collapse, it’s far more likely it would have been other major world economies dragging ours down, than, as Republicans suggested, the rest of the world panicking because America’s economy was crashing.

Candidates who lash out impulsively without facts to support them inevitably self-destruct. The record of the Biden-Harris administration speaks for itself in hard numbers and in new roads, bridges, factories, and internet lines all over the country. When red Ohioans and Kentuckians see the new Ohio River bridge connecting Cinncinnati, OH and Covington, KY being built with their tax dollars, they don’t see red or blue. They see their government meeting their needs.

Trump has made a number of missteps. His selection of J. D. Vance as a running mate backfired, as most of the country joined in labeling him weird. Having Goofy the mini-Trump on his ticket makes Trump feel good, but it’s more likely to cost him votes in moderate states than buy him votes that help him win, and being labeled weird is not good for being taken seriously.

Trump’s gut instincts aren’t working, either. Going off script at rallies and whining about personal grievances instead of offering solutions to problems has many Republicans pulling their hair out. Crazy stuff like challenging Harris’ racial identity, so reminiscent of Trump’s fake birther conspiracy which did nothing to damage Barrack Obama’s career, evoked only ridicule. His remarks at the Black Journalist conference probably reversed any inroads his campaign may have previously made in the black community, and they made him no friends among journalists. And childishly attacking popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp could cost him Gerorgia.

Trump’s base cheered when he backed out of the ABC debate with Vice President Harris and proposed moving it to a Fox News venue with cheering crowds, but everyone else saw it for what it was: fear and desperation. He’s terrified of facing off one-on-one with Harris without gimmicks, tricks, or a friendly network’s fingers on the scale. If you don’t believe that, watch this You Tube video of Senator Harris eviscerating Trump’s Attorney General Jeff Sessions in 2017. I was wrong when I called Trump Donald Duck. From now on, it’ll be Chicken Donald.

Trump’s biggest problem is that his only political skills are shamelessness and intimidation. The former had both parties back on their heels in 2016, somewhat less so in 2020. This year, with help from the Supreme Court and President Biden’s apparent decline, a Trump victory was starting to look inevitable. But with Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz running against him, neither of those will be effective, except to get his base to cheer and wave their guns around.

Harris and Walz are unfazed by Donald Trump. They mock his attacks and otherwise command the attention of the media at his expense. Today’s polls have them tied nationally, and that’s before the Democratic Convention begins. If you believe in trends and momentum shifts, we will inaugurate our first female/black/Asian (take your pick) president on January 20th.