Alan Zendell, August 23, 2024

When Donald Trump took his claim of immunity to the Supreme Court, his intentions were clear. He was under indictment in two federal cases, for mishandling classified documents and inciting an insurrection; he was under indictment in Georgia for attempting to subvert the results of the 2020 election; and he was awaiting sentencing on thirty-four felony convictions in New York. It sounds like the rap sheet of a career criminal, except that this career criminal is a former president of the United States who wants to be re-elected in November.

When the Court ruled that presidents are immune from criminal prosecution for any actions taken as part of their official duties, it appeared that that might let Trump off the hook in those pending criminal cases. The only remaining issue was how each lower court defined presidential duties. It has been widely assumed by people on all sides, that Trump’s primary goal in running for re-election was to stay out of prison, and given the Court’s ruling, he would then have a free rein to continue his quest to undermine the Constitution if he won. Some people close to Trump have whispered that he really has no desire to be president again, but he’s driven by desperation and his need for adulation.

There is another way to look at presidential immunity, however. I’m surprised none of the highly paid media pundits have addressed it. Given the chaos Trump has caused in our politics and the discord and lack of confidence in our legal system he has fostered, Donald seems to have forgotten about The Law of Unintended Consequences. It’s an error we all make when we’re caught up in the fervor of battle – sometimes what at first seems like a victory can be our undoing, and an egomaniac like Trump is exactly the kind of person who would get caught in his own trap.

Trump has been clear, both from his past actions and his explicitly stated intentions about the future. He will only accept the result of the 2024 election if he wins. He showed us the lengths he’s prepared to go to if he loses in 2020 – more than sixty motions and lawsuits, all either thrown out of court or denied by the presiding judge; the creation of teams of fake electors, and attempts to intimidate state election officials to replace the real electors with them; arousing and enabling heavily armed, right-wing militias to be prepared for anything from coup to revolution; and the final act of desperation: insurrection.

We’ve watched the slow-motion avalanche he created develop, and one way or another, it might crush whomever is in its path this November. Trump knows his magic is waning and that his antics cost him votes with independents, women, immigrants, and people of color. The groundswell of love and support for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz is something Trump neither understands nor knows how to combat. He may not know a thing about history, but his advisors understand that voting trends run in cycles, and American voters have always rejected extremism once they’ve seen it metastasize into a threat to our nation.

Let’s consider what might happen in November. Harris defeats Trump resoundingly in the popular vote and comfortably in the Electoral College. With the likelihood of incarceration staring at him, Trump will be even more driven to win by any means necessary than he was in 2020, and with the brazenness shown by his allies in Project 2025, I wouldn’t attempt to predict their actions. But there will be no guardrails or filters, no lines he won’t cross to try to win. If his past is a valid predictor, he will act purely out of self-interest without regard for federal or local laws or the Constitution. He will force the country into a crisis more serious than even the outbreak of the Civil War.

And that is when his “victory” in the fight for presidential immunity will come back to bite him. When the Supreme Court issued its decision, it addressed acts by a sitting president. Trump’s name doesn’t appear anywhere in their decision. But until January 20, 2025, the president will be Joe Biden, and Trump will simply be a private citizen guilty of treason and dozens of other serious felonies. It will be Joe Biden who suddenly has the power granted by the Courts to lock Trump up as a clear and present danger to the nation. Trump’s lawyers can scream to high heaven, and down the road, they might even prevail in some kangaroo court. But Biden could go as far as declaring marital law and keep Trump incommunicado in solitary confinement, and as long as he was perceived as acting in his official duties to defend the Constitution, he will have the full protection of the Supreme Court.

If that’s not enough, we’ll have a tough-as-nails prosecutor as President Elect, who won’t flinch from doing whatever is necessary to silence the Trump menace once and for all.