Alan Zendell, October 1, 2024

Yesterday, The New York Times endorsed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for president, declaring that Trump was unfit to lead and an extreme danger to the country. Harris was lauded as “the only patriotic choice” in the presidential election. The Times praised her policies, qualifications, and record as a prosecutor and California Attorney General, but their endorsement had more to do with Trump’s negatives than Harris herself. In our polarized nation, for many Harris voters, her most important quality as a candidate is that she sounds like a skilled prosecutor whenever she lists his transgressions.

Given Trump’s long-standing animus toward The Times, no one was surprised by the endorsement, but unlike previous endorsements motivated by policy and politics, this one was backed up by a long list of Republicans, former Trump associates and employees, and members of his family. Today, The Times published statements by ninety-one of them who explained whyTrump is unfit to serve a president again.

Since the conventions, there have been a myriad of lists of people willing to put their names on record, some at great risk to their careers, warning about the dangers of Trump returning to the White House. They include Trump’s senior Cabinet officers, former and current congressional Republicans, Republican state officials, and his close associates and relatives. These messages are based on Trump’s own words and actions and hold him accountable for his failures in office, like the politically motivated delay of his response to COVID that resulted in the avoidable deaths of a half million Americans.

Perhaps more ominous, many Republicans and others who know Trump best warn that he would be a far worse president than he was the first time. Much of that concern comes from Trump himself, who publicly declared war on his opponents, on immigrants, and the mythical deep state he fantasizes about. He stated unequivocally that he will use the Department of Justice to prosecute anyone who stands against him. Yesterday, he added a new wrinkle.

In the midst of lying about the federal government’s response to Hurricane Helene, (he was contradicted by four southern governors, three of whom are Republicans,) he advocated that police should be allowed a day of unfettered violence – in effect, a suspension of the Constitution – to deal with people he describes as lowlifes, rapists, and murderers, after which, in his delusion, there would be no more crime. If he could get away with it, Trump would create his own Gestapo and secret police, modeled after what two of his idols, Adolf Hitler and Josef Stalin created.

Trump’s campaign has gone down so many rabbit holes, many of his supporters worry about him going completely off the rails. His obvious lack of guardrails, boundaries, and self-discipline have Republicans worried that he will lose and take the House and Senate down with him. Trump’s life-long mental illness may finally be overwhelming his ability to function rationally. I’ve heard the term “bat-shit crazy” a dozen times this week during media interviews with Republicans.

On the same Times editorial page, was a column that addressed a question tens of millions of Americans are asking: with all of this damning evidence against him, not to mention his indictments and felony convictions, why isn’t Harris killing him in the polls? That might be the most compelling mystery of our time, destined to be studied by generations of psychologists and sociologists.

But there’s another possibility. What if she really is way ahead, but no one is telling us? That’s not a conspiracy theory, just common sense. There’s good reason to suspect that the polls aren’t accurate – how could they be when they’re largely based on cell phone and email interviews? Who do you know who answers political calls or responds to polling emails? But even if pollsters somehow, against all logic, have polling samples that are representative of likely voters, we’re victims of seriously biased media.

Broadcast and streaming media all love polls, because their sponsors, the people who pay their bills love them. Polls turn elections into sporting events. Having an election without polls would be like watching a football game without a scoreboard. Social media are worse, because they submit to no vetting authority to help us distinguish truth from fiction. Yet, this deception contains a grain of truth that lends it credibility: the dreaded margin of error.

A phrase I often hear is “no clear leader within the margin of error.” On its face, if you believe the numbers they report, it’s a true statement. A poll based on a sample size of a thousand “likely voters” will typically have a margin of error of about four percent. That means that any result that has the candidates within four percentage points of each other qualifies as having no clear leader, but that can be extremely misleading.

I check 538.com, the highly trusted website that presents all respected poll results next to each other, every day. What I see is Harris leading Trump by between two and six points in all the most recent polls. That kind of trend is far more significant than “no clear leader,” but sponsors of athletic events love close games, and elections are no different. My conclusion is that Americans understand how dangerous Trump is far better the media would have us believe. We know he’s unfit, and we’ll demonstrate that on Election Day.