Alan Zendell, April 27, 2025

At the beginning of March, James Carville, who made his reputation helping Bill Clinton win the presidency with the slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid,” wrote an OpEd in the New York Times advising Democrats on how to defend the country against Trump’s excesses. At the time, he predicted that Trump’s approval rating would fall into the thirties quickly, probably by the end of April, but certainly by the end of May. He advised Democrats to step aside for a while and let Trump hang himself.

Today, April 27^th, Trump’s approval rating stands at 41%, down from 53% when he was inaugurated. Moreover, it’s down 3% from Trump’s own approval rating at the same point in his first term, and it’s the lowest hundred-day presidential approval number since the Korean War. Far more significant is that voters who identify as Independents disapprove of Trump’s actions by more than three to one.

That’s critical because Republicans hold only a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives that depends on a couple of dozen Republicans who won in vulnerable swing districts. In those districts, it’s Independents who make the difference, and that will likely derail Trump’s agenda.

In today’s money-driven politics of self-interest, swing state Republicans will have Trump’s agenda on a short leash, because they value getting re-elected next year more than they care about MAGA. To make things worse for Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, Axios reported that at least three prominent House MAGA Republicans seem poised to quit the House and run for higher office, and in the two special elections to fill House seats vacated by Trump’s Cabinet members, Democrats reduced the Republicans’ margin of victory in deeply red states by more than half. Those results had nothing to do with a Democratic Party that appears to be comatose – they were entirely about Trump’s actions.

Carville’s point was that once they see Trump’s approval rating drop below 40%, swing district Republicans will fear backlash from voters more than they fear Trump’s retribution. Carville’s right – you can bet your mortgage on it. But there’s a lot of money backing Trump and many of his MAGA supporters. Even massive dissent will not bring down the MAGA agenda easily or quickly. The best the nation can hope for is a gradual, accelerating trend of defections. This administration will inevitably unravel, but it will occur in slow motion like an approaching avalanche.

A lot of Americans, at least half of the country, have been living in a paralyzed state of disbelief since Trump was re-elected. They feel helpless watching their beloved country decompose into something unrecognizable. I haven’t seen America in this state since the days when it looked like Richard Nixon might get away with covering up Watergate. We were saved, then, by senior Congressional Republicans led by Barry Goldwater, who informed Nixon that he was not above the law and would be impeached and removed from office if he didn’t resign.

That won’t happen to Trump unless and until he has done so much damage to our economy, our people, and our standing in the world that everyone but hard-core MAGA advocates vote him into oblivion, much less a third term. I now believe that collateral damage is the most serious threat we face. Carville’s forecast that Trump will crash and burn will come to pass. But how many people will die, go hungry, or sicken, or lose their homes and livelihoods before he’s stopped? How much carnage will be done to small businesses that survive on the labor of immigrant workers, whether or not they’re here legally?

Maybe Trump’s gross misconduct will finally enable Americans to see that our problem with undocumented immigrants is very similar to  our problems with fentanyl and heroin addiction. Our immigration system and our approach to stopping the smuggling of dangerous drugs across our border are equally wrong  and broken, but they will never be fixed either by Executive Order or congressional action as long as there is intense demand for both among American citizens. Perhaps as Americans wake up to those realities, they will see that the MAGA agenda has never been about fixing problems. Trump simply uses them as an excuse to seize power and wealth, and undermine our Constitutional liberties.

As Trump’s numbers tank, and they will continue to as people wake up to the fact that he has accomplished absolutely nothing in a hundred days except degrade our economy, our strength, and our alliances, his vulnerability will become obvious to everyone. Americans who have been hunkering down in their shelters will feel free to come out again and speak their minds. That time is coming, sooner than a lot of people thought. When three-fourths of us say “NO MORE!” to Trump, we’ll go back to being America again.

The hundred-day approval thing is a surrogate for comparing each new president’s performance to the accomplishments of the Roosevelt administration in 1933. FDR, in his first hundred days, put the essential pieces of the New Deal in place. In the throes of the Great Depression, tens of millions of Americans were unemployed, homeless, or hungry. FDR’s first 100 days were about providing for average Americans in need, and assuring they would never have to stand in bread lines again.

PS – Two major polls released after I posted this showed Trump’s approval rating at 39%. We disbelieve Jim Carville at our peril.