Alan Zendell, July 21, 2025

Thirty-three years ago, when Bill Clinton was running for president, Democratic strategist James Carville burst on the scene. He brought with him an acerbic wit, an unusual talent for political analysis, and a good-old-boy Louisiana drawl. Pearls of wisdom spilled from his mouth, and many people credit him with being a large part of Clinton’s victories.

Ever since then, whenever the Democratic Party seems to have lost its way, like every moment of the last eighteen months, for example, I wait for the master to speak. When he spoke in March, it was to tell Democrats to lay low. Don’t fight Trump’s attempts to destroy the government, just get out of the way and give him enough rope to hang himself. His approval rating will be way down in the 30 by the end of May.

Was he right? It’s July 21^st, and the four most recent polls (CBS, Reuters, AP, and CNN) have Trumps approval at 40-42% and his disapproval rating at 54-58%. Carville was wrong. The numbers may look close, but the low forties is where Trump has spent most of his political career. Interestingly, polls on specific issues are far less favorable. More than 60% of Americans disapprove of the way ICE operates – OpEds are beginning to refer to the pseudo-law enforcement agency as America’s Gestapo.

The Big Ugly Bill polls at about the same level, but Trump’s base doesn’t seem to have made the connection between the harm his actions have caused them and Trump himself. It would be absurd, in terms of national priorities, for the Epstein scandal to be the thing that finally convinces his base that Trump lied to them, but it would also be strangely fitting, given Trump’s life-long relationship with sexual predation.

The Democrats may not have intended to lay back and let Trump run amok, but there’s no evidence that the leaderless, lost Dems did anything to slow him down. In March, Carville begged someone, anyone to end the Democrats’ lack of leadership. In today’s New York Times OpEd, he contradicted that, and then in the same piece contradicted his contradiction.

Today, Carville said the Democrats shouldn’t even think about selecting a leader until after the midterm elections, sixteen months from now. Without saying why, he simply stated that any attempt to select one before then would fail. Then, a few paragraphs later, he said, “Until then, we must run unified in opposition to the Republicans to gain as many House seats as possible in the midterms.”

Huh? How can they run in unified opposition when they don’t have a leader? When even Jim Carville doesn’t make sense, the Democrats’ cause is hopeless. Another thing Carville said was that Democrats should start campaigning immediately, and from now until the midterms, the theme should be a single word: Repeal. Repeal the Ugly Orange Bill. Repeal the Trump tax cuts. Repeal the legislation that’s intended to turn ICE loose on an unsuspecting America, even after the overreach and violation of civil rights that they publicly celebrate.

Carville didn’t say it, but I will. With the Supreme Court telling Trump he can do whatever he wants without ever addressing the legality or constitutionality of his actions, and with not a single Democrat able to gain traction with independent or Republican voters, the midterms are our last hope of surviving Trump with our democracy intact. Democratic state legislatures, who have never abused gerrymandering as badly as Republicans have, are now looking at redistricting, to squeeze every possible seat out of the midterms, but that won’t accomplish anything until a charismatic leader emerges.

The last two successful Democrats, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both possessed that quality. Neither had much of a track record relating to national politics or world affairs when they ran for president, but they had a positive version of what Trump has. In a country as polarized as the United States is today, it’s scary to say, but the next charismatic idol who comes along is likely to be our next president.

I have hope for the midterms, based on the way independent voters reacted to Trump in the 2018 midterms. But the MAGA machine is a lot more sophisticated now than it was then. Stephen Miller, who drives the most hateful of Trump’s policies, has moved the culture of lies and disregard for the rule of law to a new level, and the Democrats have so far been totally ineffectual in combating that. How does Carville imagine they’re going to win back the House without coordinated leadership?

Just as I was rallying my own optimism for the midterms, I noticed something that could derail our hopes for them. Fifty-three days before the election, we will commemorate the twenty-fifth anniversary of nine-eleven. Imagine how Trump and MAGA will use that leading into the midterms. I wonder which Arab countries he’ll decide to bomb to show everyone how tough he is.