Alan Zendell, November 3, 2025

For several months, there has been growing speculation throughout both social and traditional media about the 2026 midterm elections. Donald Trump, just a few days ago in Asia, was still denying that he lost the 2020 election, and he has launched an all-out campaign demanding that red states gerrymander their voting districts to minimize chances of Democrats winning seats in the House. His trolling about a third term is probably no more than that – Trump is famous for creating chaos by threatening to do outrageous things – but it’s clear that whether or not everything he says can be taken seriously, he is obsessed with elections and landslides that exist only in his mind.

Back in February, when Elon Musk was using a chain saw to hack up federal agencies, Democratic icon James Carville predicted two specific things about tomorrow’s elections. The first was that by November 4^th, Trump’s popularity would tank to its lowest levels, and news services, today, reported that his approval rating is twenty-six points under water, (63% disapproval versus 37% approval,) and voters polled said they had more confidence in Democrats to manage our economy by 61% to 39%. Carville’s second prediction, more than eight months ago, was that tomorrow’s gubernatorial election in Virginia would be a powerful refutation of Trump himself and Project 2025.

Virginia has been hovering over the purple line that separates blue and red states for two decades, and outgoing Governor Glen Youngkin was a strong MAGA supporter. Many who oppose MAGA feared that Youngkin’s election in 2022 meant Virginia had swung red again, a warning sign that Trumpism was growing in strength. Carville, who believes elections turn on how average people see their own lives being affected – remember “It’s the Economy, Stupid?” – recognized that northern Virginia is home to about 150,000 federal employees and at least 100,000 veterans who were angry that Trump wasn’t keeping his promises to address veterans’ issues. He predicted a backlash against Trump’s attempt to disassemble the federal government and  ignore the problems of veterans who suffered severe psychological damage in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that a Democratic win in Virginia would be the inflection point that reversed MAGA’s momentum.

It’s not a stretch to say that tomorrow’s elections are a partial referendum on Trump’s second term. Not least is whether California voters will pass Proposition 50 which would temporarily redistrict the state to favor Democrats in response to Trump’s actions. But it’s important to note that the red states who answered Trump’s call needed only to take legislative action to redistrict, while California and other blue states required affirmation from voters. Texas’ redistricting required only the votes of a bright red legislature. Tomorrow, as food stamp recipents struggle to feed their families, we’ll see what voters think.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has mounted the only public Trump resistance campaign in the country, making tomorrow’s vote about the dependence of the state’s economy on immigrants and the likely unconstitutional use of the military in Los Angeles. However the vote goes, it will be difficult to deny that it was really about Trump demonizing every state and city that refuses to bend the knee to him.

There’s no way to tell whether a few victories, tomorrow, including the near-certain win by a socialist Muslim as Mayor iof New York, will turn the tide for Democrats, who have done an excellent imitation of the red carpets Trump likes to walk on all this year. Will a leader other than Newsom emerge who is willing to take up the mantle of defender of our democracy? If the specter of attacking boats in international waters based on unproved suspicions of drug-running, or threatening to invade other countries doesn’t wake up the Democrats, they deserve to go down in flames. The problem is that if they do they might take the entire country with them. As of today, Trump is on record as threatening the sovereignty of Canada, Mexico, Greenland, (and by implication, Denmark,) Venezuela, and Nigeria. The president who brags about ending seven wars no one was even aware of and demanding the Nobel Peace Prize would wantonly start five new ones without the benefit of Congressional approval as the Constitution requires.

In reality, tomorrow’s elections are only a dress rehearsal. Trump, who has no filters and even less respect for the rule of law, will stop at nothing to dominate the midterms. If it looks like he’s going to lose Congress, all indications are that he will find some pretext, some phony emergency and use it as a basis for postponing the midterm elections or using military presence to intimidate voters the way his idol Vladimir Putin does. Far too many Americans fear the country being under martial law by this time next near.

Angry, fearful Americans have been waiting on the sidelines, hoping the Supreme Court would save them from Trump. It’s time to re-engage.