A M O C

Posted on February 10, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, Febru1ary 10, 2024

If you’re not familiar with the acronym AMOC, it’s the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, an ocean current that “works like a giant global conveyor belt, taking warm water from the tropics toward the far North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southward.” If that description makes you wonder why you should care, I’ll add that the Gulf Stream, which keeps the climate in the northeastern part of North America from the mid-Atlantic to New Brunswick, Canada temperate, (habitable,) is part of the AMOC.

If the Gulf Stream stopped flowing, all of the eastern portions of the United States and Canada north of about 39 degrees latitude, roughly the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area, would be covered with glaciers within a few years. Acclaimed science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson first addressed this in his 2005 trilogy, Science in the Capital. Long an advocate of finding ways to mitigate the effects of climate change, Robinson is not a doom-sayer. Rather he is a utopian who believes science will prevail in the end.

Scientists have long understood that AMOC and its child, the Gulf Stream, are sustained by the salinity of the Atlantic Ocean, particularly the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate change is critical here, because rising global air and ocean temperatures are melting our polar icecaps. As the ice melts it turns to fresh water which decreases the salinity (the percentage of salt in the ocean water.) There is no scientific doubt that if this continues indefinitely, a tipping point will be reached at which the salinity has decreased by so much that these critical ocean currents collapse. What scientists have been unable to predict or calculate until now is how close we are to the tipping point and when we might reach it.

Recently, however, researchers at the University of Utrecht (Netherlands) used a supercomputer to run a sophisticated simulation of ocean currents, energy, temperature, and salinity, and for the first time, were able to simulate conditions that would result in a collapse of the Gulf Stream. They still cannot predict exactly when they might occur, but there’s little controversy over the consequences if they do.

Although Robinson, who has now published six books analyzing the future impact of climate change, is a science fiction writer, the possible collapse of the Gulf Stream is not science fiction. It’s hard, demonstrable science. In this era in which facts and science have become malleable in the hands of some politicians and educators, that’s a very serious matter. The collapse of the Gulf Stream would totally disrupt the world’s economy, its politics, and the ability of many industrial nations to survive.

The Utrecht study found that “[s]ome parts of Europe might see temperatures plunge by up to 30 degrees Celsius over a century … leading to a completely different climate over the course of just a decade or two.” To illustrate why, start by looking at average high temperatures in some of Europe’s major cities (slide right for later months.). They run in the mid-seventies Fahrenheit in summer to around forty in winter:

HighJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Berlin38°F40°F48°F57°F67°F71°F76°F74°F66°F56°F46°F39°F
London47°F48°F52°F58°F63°F69°F73°F72°F67°F60°F53°F49°F
Paris44°F46°F53°F59°F66°F72°F76°F76°F69°F61°F51°F45°F

In North America, more than 100 million people would be displaced. Homes and jobs would disappear, food production would drop severely, and energy demands would skyrocket north of the 39th parallel. Further south, the sunbelt would have to absorb all of the displaced families and businesses from up north. In Europe, whole nations would collapse, and a sudden shortage of critical resources would greatly increase the chances of major wars.

This isn’t the plot of a dystopian future novel or film, although it sounds like many of them. This is a real threat, and it may already be too late to avert it. Many people have denied climate change for political or financial reasons, or perhaps, because the consequences were too frightening or unbelievable to contemplate. If we don’t start taking it seriously and reduce carbon emissions and the global use of heat-generating fertilizers, the predictions above could become reality in our lifetimes.

A very smart person once told me it’s a really bad idea to piss-off Mother Nature. The only good news in all this is that the value of my Florida condo would soar, assuming Florida was still above water and money still had any value by then.

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MAGA’s Dereliction of Duty

Posted on February 6, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, February 6, 2024

Ever since a mentally ill narcissist with an unfortunate gift for coalescing anger into political force decided to build a populist movement based on lies and divisiveness, the United States has been on a collision course with catastrophe. Donald Trump distorted the once proud Conservative Republican Party into a dysfunctional clown show. Most people seem creeped out by clowns more than amused by them, and the same is true for the unamusing performance of today’s MAGA Republicans.

Until now, about a third of our country has proved impervious to truth and rational thought when it comes to Donald Trump. A continuous string of defeats in state and federal courts over his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, statements from election officials in red states like Georgia and Arizona that there was no evidence of election irregularities, and a growing chorus of former Trump allies warning that he is irresponsible, incompetent, and unfit to lead continue to fall on deaf ears.

Why? Because there are enough billionaires who believe their self-interest is served by supporting Trump, who they expect to protect their fortunes and elite lifestyles. They understand the power money bestows on right-wing media, and care as little about truth and journalistic integrity as Trump does, so they continue to spend millions of dollars supporting every media outlet willing to spread Trump’s lies.

Then, there is Trump’s claim that as president he is (and will be if re-elected) all-powerful and immune to any kind of criminal prosecution for actions he commits while in office. Today, a three-judge district court panel ruled that he is not. The judges wrote: “We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its … occupants above the law for all time thereafter. … Former President Trump lacked any lawful discretionary authority to defy federal criminal law and he is answerable in court for his conduct.”

Arguing about truth with people who have no integrity and even less shame is as fruitless as an argument between an atheist and a true believer. Truth and observable facts rarely stand a chance against blind faith and fear. That’s the stuff of dangerous cults, and that is exactly what Trump’s version of the Republican party has become. Until now, the danger posed by this dichotomy has been largely hypothetical, but the current fiasco of a strong, tough border bill negotiated in the U. S. Senate being declared dead on arrival by House Speaker and Trump sycophant Mike Johnson makes it frighteningly real.

It’s no secret that after demanding action to control our southern border for almost nine years, and accomplishing only a small fraction of what he promised when he was president, Trump has made it crystal clear that he cares far more about being re-elected than his hyped-up border crisis. His MAGA followers in the House set conditions for passage of the urgent security package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan that included new border policies they knew the Democrats and the traditional Republicans led by Mitch McConnell would never accept.

But the trio of President Biden, McConnell, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called their bluff and drafted a strong bipartisan bill that meets every requirement laid out by Mike Johnson. They even took out any language about a path to citizenship for Dreamers. We reached the height of political cynicism when Trump told a rally that he was responsible for his House supporters declaring the border bill dead on arrival and “the press should blame me.” We then experienced a new level of surreal governmental dysfunction when Johnson told reporters it was absurd to believe he’d scuttle a border bill just to please Trump. Yet, that is exactly what he and the extremists who support him did.

Let’s be clear. The only motivation for trying to kill this bill, which would easily pass the House if Johnson ever brought it to a vote, is to suck up to Trump. Loyalty to Trump not only makes a mockery of the MAGA claims about the “crisis” at the border, but it directly threatens our national security and that of our allies. By denying funding to Ukraine, they are essentially handing a victory to Vladimir Putin, something Trump salivates over. That victory puts Putin’s expansionist ambitions directly on NATO’s border. That should move the Doomsday clock to within a second of Midnight.

Killing the border bill also leaves Israel in the lurch after the horrendous acts of murder and rape committed by Hamas and sends a clear message to Xi Jinping that Taiwan cannot count on America to defend it if Xi chooses to invade. This single act of cynical hypocrisy threatens the world order and with it, the world itself. I’m too old to worry about World War 3, but my grandchildren have their whole lives ahead of them. Someone must talk sense into Mike Johnson.

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Extremism : Centrism ~ Trump : Biden

Posted on February 3, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, February 3, 2024

For most of our history, government represented the varying viewpoints and attitudes of our people reasonably well. Congress, until the last few decades consisted of a broad spectrum of Conservatives, Progressives, and Centrists. There have always been a few extremists at both ends of the spectrum. Our House of Representatives and Senate have always included a few people who were socialists, populists, warhawks, ultra-capitalists, and libertarians. It worked because they balanced each other. Since the Civil War, extremists at either end never dominated our politics – until Donald Trump entered the scene.

Right-wing extremists point to Franklin Roosevelt as the symbol of radical progressivism because the New Deal transformed our governing philosophy from laissez-faire capitalism to a society based on the needs of all Americans. But FDR took office in the middle of the worst Depression in our history, with millions out of work, struggling to feed and house their families. And Roosevelt was no slouch at defending our country when World War 2 loomed.

Every president since then has found a way to govern in a bipartisan manner, regardless of his political ideology – until Donald Trump took office. Trump’s legacy will be the President who changed the basic American ideal of cooperation and bipartisanism to divisiveness. It will include an extreme commitment to government by oligarchy and exalting the Executive Branch of government over the Legislative and Judicial Branches in contradiction of one of the most basic principles in our Constitution, while attempting to shift the balance of power from the federal government to the individual states.

The truth, however, is that when personalities are excluded, and Americans are asked what they want, we get a very different result. Only a small percentage of Americans favor replacing our economy with a welfare state, and even fewer think we should have heavily armed militias placing our basic institutions under siege. Most Americans want their government to maintain a stable economy, keep our basic infrastructure functioning and efficient, defend us against foreign adversaries, provide for the health of our nation, and assure that our children are educated and prepared for adulthood.

Most Americans want a government that balances the needs of American families against the realities of defense and security. No one loves paying taxes, but ask the average American if they’re willing to pay more taxes to build roads, bridges, power grids, and communication systems and they’ll agree. Ask them if they’re willing to pay more taxes so the wealthiest among us don’t have to pay any, and you get a different response. Everything is clear when we tell the truth and mute the chaos extremists thrive on.

That’s what the 2024 election is about. There’s no point debating whether octogenarians should sit in the Oval Office. In all likelihood, that choice has already been made for us. The real question is which one. Do we want a president and a Congress dominated by people who prefer all-powerful leaders for whom retaining power is the ultimate goal? Or do we want leaders who believe in what most Americans believe?

Most Americans believe women have the right to control their own bodies and health, and determine when parenthood is appropriate. Most Americans want a secure border and an end to being victimized by drug cartels, but they also recognize that immigrants have been the driving force behind science, innovation, education, and maintaining the kind of work ethic we need to be successful. Most Americans believe their right to vote should not be compromised. Most Americans believe in equal opportunity. Most Americans want to care for their families, fulfill their responsibilities to society, and otherwise be free to enjoy the fruits of their labors.

In three years, the Biden administration and the majority or our Congress have worked to give Americans all of those things. They averted the oft-predicted Recession we faced after COVID, created millions of jobs, and strengthened the economy average people depend on while driving the value of equity markets and investments to record highs. And our President has stood strong in the face of every international threat. Joe Biden restored the respect of NATO, so far enabling the western world to thwart Russia’s attempt to recreate its former Soviet empire. It has maintained support for Taiwan, defended Israel against Iran-backed terrorists, and this week, made a powerful military statement to Iran and any other bad actor seeking to disrupt the world order.

Trump, on the other hand, has become more extreme. He would have a group of twenty extremists dominate our Congress of 535 members. He will treat the presidency as his own personal playground in which he is exempt from laws and normal standards of behavior. He will continue to pander to every extremist group willing to keep him in power. Donald Trump is a greedy, venal, immoral man who will always place his self-interest above that of the country.

The choice has never been easier.

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Trump’s Hypocrisy

Posted on January 29, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, January 29, 2024

Futurists and speculative writers have warned that a long-term consequence of a fully open, unregulated internet would likely be graying the lines between truth and fiction. When anyone with an opinion, someone like me, for example, can share it with the world on an unvetted platform, it takes a discerning reader to know when they’re being lied to. When we add sound, video, CGI and AI technology, and the combined skills of professional influencers, almost anyone can be fooled into believing anything.

Some of the smartest writers of the past few decades told us it was inevitable that a time would come when everything we viewed as inherently true would become amorphous. Things we once viewed as hard fact would suddenly be soft and malleable. That includes mathematics, science, medicine, health, and statistics, but it applies most visibly to politics.

There are countless ways to distort truth and lie; one of the most insidious is hypocrisy, especially when it is dispensed by an unscrupulous individual gifted with charismatic appeal. I have no intention of subtlety. I’m referring to Donald Trump and his army of coattail-clinging sycophants. The Big Lie isn’t just about claiming the 2020 election was stolen. It extends to virtually everything that comes out of their mouths.

I taught my children that lies always come home to roost. Lie and cheat often enough and eventually people will catch on to you. We’re all accountable in the end. Every major religion contains some version of Judgment Day, and despite corrupt, broken legal systems, people who routinely lie and mislead usually face the consequences of their actions. Yes, I see circular fallacy, too. Ultimate accountability is only a fact of nature until it isn’t.

It’s all been hypothetical until now, and millions of people who most need to heed the warnings haven’t been paying attention. For more than eight years as a politician, Trump seemed Teflon-coated. When the 2024 election was more than a year off, we could defer concerns that Trump might get away with his crimes and win again. Until now, even his supporters acknowledged that they hate his behavior, but “like his policies,” and that’s the heart of the problem.

My first question is always, “What policies?” His only policy is pursuing what is best and most profitable for Donald Trump. His most impressive legislative achievement, the massive 2017 tax cuts that were almost entirely a gift for billionaires was the culmination of a years-long effort by Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. All Trump did was sign it. His other major policies included a disastrous trade war that alienated both allies and adversaries, and contributed significantly to inflation; disrespect of our major allies including NATO; and a love of autocrats, which goes hand-in-hand with his disdain for democracy.

But I left out his most hypocritical policies. First was his promise to appoint conservative justices who believed in the Constitution, and that his choices would be apolitical on specific issues. Trump isn’t the only politician who lied about that, but he did it in spades. Each of his three Supreme Court appointees lied to the Senate about their views on abortion. They were selected because of Trump’s pandering to evangelicals. Does anyone think Trump believes in the sanctity of human life or any other Judeo-Christian value?

The runner-up as Trump’s most heinous hypocrisy is respect for women. His adult life has been an ongoing scandal of disrespecting and sexually assaulting women. Before he became a politician, his misadventures were covered up with hush-money and non-disclosure agreements. Trump still doesn’t understand that the government isn’t his personal property, and as a politician he lives in the same bubble as the rest of us. As I warned my children, his actions are finally catching up with him. Courts have now awarded one of his victims a total of $88.8 million in damages and found him guilty of sexual assault in a civil trial.

Finally, the winner! Immigration. We have a serious southern border problem, one for which every president and every Congress in the past fifty years bears responsibility. The drum Trump has continually beaten since 2015 is that to make America great again we have to keep out undesirables, i.e., dark-skinned non-Europeans. He convinced millions of people, in 2016, that most immigrants and refugees were rapists and murderers.

Trump accomplished little in terms of controlling our border, and Mexico didn’t pay for any of it. But President Biden and Senate Leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell hammered out a strong, bipartisan compromise to spend billions on border enforcement personnel and cutting-edge technology, and to authorize the President to close the border if necessary to preserve our security. Candidate Trump is publicly lobbying his supporters in the House to scuttle the bill because it would given Biden a legislative victory and rob Trump of what he perceives as his strongest campaign issue. At a rally on Saturday, he told the media to blame him if the bill doesn’t pass.

There’s a reason Nikki Haley hasn’t dropped out of the primary race, the same reason the Koch Network of Conservative billionaires who believe in our Constitution continues to fund her campaign. They know the power of women in the voting booth, and as the Wall Street Journal suggested, Trump’s cynical attempt to scuttle border legislation will likely come back and bite him.

Enough is enough. By the time we reach this year’s nominating conventions, the glaring truth about Donald Trump will be out there for everyone to see. Millions who supported him will no longer be able to hold their noses while they cast their votes.

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Donald Trump’s Alternate Universe

Posted on January 25, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, January 25, 2024

I sometimes wonder if I took a wrong turn and wound up in an alternate universe. The one in which I grew up and lived most of my life had its problems, but in the end, it always seemed to value facts and truth. Academically trained in math and science, I was taught to see the world through a lens of logic, rationality, and common sense. To understand my dilemma, let me share a fantasy with you.

Suppose you lived in an alternate version of the United States in which an incoming president inherited:

  - a world-wide pandemic

  - an international trading crisis that disrupted imports, exports, and supply chains

  - shortages of all kinds of critical parts and finished products resulting from the disruption caused by the pandemic

  - a well-documented expectation of runaway inflation in food costs stemming from the fact that farmers could not harvest their 2020 crops and ranchers had to destroy or sell off their herds at salvage prices

  - severe unemployment and the loss of countless jobs that no longer existed

  - dire warnings about the near certainty of a major recession looming

  - a divided Congress that was virtually dysfunctional, in which the president’s party held bare minimum majorities in both houses

  - millions of small businesses barely holding on, having still not recovered from the pandemic-related shutdown

  - a nation plagued by conspiracy theories that had no evidential basis and a frightening lack of confidence in truth, basic facts, and our entire judicial system.

That’s a pretty daunting list. Yet, even with no support from the opposition party, the president was able to unify his colleagues in Congress to pass massive legislation that put money in the pockets of consumers, every dollar of which flowed directly back into our economy and acted as an overall stimulus. He passed legislation to repair America’s critical infrastructure, make the internet available to millions of people who never had access before, assured that the production of critical items like computer microchips could be controlled by American companies, and made the largest ever investment in mitigating the effects of climate change.

In my fantasy world, this president’s administration was the most productive since Franklin Roosevelt’s, ninety years ago. The president also launched a worldwide initiative to restore our allies’ confidence that America could be counted on again, just in time to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could not have survived even a week without unwavering support from NATO. In doing so, he may well have averted the risk of a major war in central and eastern Europe, in which a single misstep might have resulted in a nuclear holocaust. In case that wasn’t enough of a challenge, the portion of the Islamic world that is dominated by Iran chose this time to foment a new war in the Middle East, which remained contained only through the impressive diplomatic efforts of the current administration.

In my nightmare universe, a former president who is under indctment for nearly a hundred felonies by state and federal prosecutors, who was found by a state court to have conducted his billion-dollar businesses fraudulently, who has been credibly accused of sexual assault by thirteen different women, and who has maintained the well-proven lie that the current president had rigged his election, is now running against him.

In the America I grew up in, the outcome would be a slam dunk. As a result of our president’s efforts, financial markets are at record highs, unemployment is being sustained at unprecedented lows, and inflation has been reversed more than in any other developed country, despite gasoline prices having spiked to over $5 a gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Surely, Americans would have been buoyed by these results and rally around their president. Surely, Americans would have valued the rule of law, respected carefully documented facts and rejected equally well-documented lies. Surely, they would reward success and demand that they be led by someone who respects our Constitution, swears to defend our democracy, and demonstrates a moral compass that includes our basic American values.

But in my alternate reality, the challenger’s followers made use of loopholes in our governing institutions to refuse to continue funding our support for critical allies who are victims of brutal aggression and war crimes. And the challenger himself has been explicit about his intentions to undermine our Constitution, execute a campaign of retribution against his opponents, and conduct himself as though he were immune from all laws and standards of behavior. In this universe, a year from now, we might be inaugurating the most dangerous man in America for a second term as president.

I’ve spent eight years trying unsuccessfully to puzzle out how my America could possibly have turned into this one. My America would never have turned its back on everything we’ve fought for in our quarter millennium of existence. This is the way great nations decay and eventually collapse. The only possible conclusion is that this isn’t the universe I grew up in.

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Christie’s Last Chance to Redeem Himself

Posted on January 9, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, January 9, 2024

My lack of confidence in the presidential polls that show Trump with a commanding lead in the Republican primary race is well documented. Everyone I know who is qualified to discuss sampling universes agrees – it doesn’t seem possible, the way polls are conducted by emails and mobile phone calls, that the people polled are representative of the voting population. Still, a trend is a trend, and the one reported today in New Hampshire could have huge implications.

The result in the latest primary poll in that state are: Trump – 39%, Haley – 32%, Christie – 12%, Ramaswamy – 8%, DeSantis – 5% and Hutchinson <1%. Whenever there is a sharp change in poll results, we have to be careful to wait for more data before we jump to conclusions. The change might have been an aberration, or it might have been the first part of a growing trend that is still ongoing. Since November, Haley’s support grew by 12%, which is actually a 60% increase over her previous level of 20%. That would be remarkable in any campaign, but in this one, it shows what credible, centrist Republicans like NH Governor Chris Sununu can accomplish when they unite behind a candidate. It certainly suggests that Trump’s invincibility is overrated.

It’s also an opportunity, perhaps his last, for Chris Christie to win back some respect. I expect that his 12% showing has more to do with the fact that he’s the only candidate to take Trump on head-to-head than how much voters believe in him. Christie has credibility issues going back to his support for Trump in 2016. His recent mea culpa TV ad, in which he admits that supporting trouble was a mistake might have helped if he’d released it six months ago. Today, it looks like a desperate Hail Mary, and even at that, it fails to address the months that Christie worshipped at Trump’s feet hoping for a Cabinet position. Even worse, for the Republicans, should Christie pull off the miracle of the millennium, and win the nomination from Trump, he has about as much chance of beating Joe Biden as I do, and you couldn’t pay me enough to accept the job.

The MAGA crowd hates Christie, for his current attacks on Trump and for putting Charles Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner’s father, in prison. No one is more vindictive than Donald Trump. If Christie had the Republican nomination, Trump would run as a write-in or third party candidate. He’d do whatever he could to torpedo him out of spite, and the winner would be Biden. In short, Christie’s candidacy is doomed whether he wins the nomination or not, but one classy move when it really matters could change everything for him.

If Christie had any integrity, any motive beyond satisfying his own lust for power, he would make a deal with Nikki Haley, today. Right now, without wasting a minute. He would drop out of the race tomorrow and urge everyone who supported him to vote for her. The proverb about the enemy of your enemy being your friend couldn’t be more applicable than in fighting to defeat Trump. Trump is the enemy of everyone who believes in our Constitution and our flawed, fragile democracy, which makes the former SC Governor their friend.

If Christie spends the next few months stumping for Haley in the primary race and nominates her at the Republican convention, he’ll earn forgiveness for his past wrongs, or to put it in terms he and Trump understand, we might grant him amnesty for all his past behavior. He might even wind up as Haley’s running mate which would say a lot about his ability to suppress his ego for the common good. For most of his political life, Christie has behaved like a bully, and hasn’t always practiced what he preached. Remember when some journalists caught him sunbathing with his wife on a New Jersey beach while he was enforcing the COVID lockdown for everyone else in his state?

If Chris Christie believes anything he says on the campaign trail, if he means it when he calls Trump dangerous and the enemy of democracy, this is the way to show it. If getting in line behind Haley is the action that derails Trump’s run for the presidency, we might build a monument to him. So what’s it going to be, Chris? Do you care more about this country than your own ego? Are you willing to take second place to a woman? Stranger things have happened in politics.

In this very surreal primary season, when it seems as though the country is on a precipice, maybe we need a miracle. It might as well be Christie, who said last week that Trump needs to be defeated by voters, not justices. This is best chance.

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Democracy and the Rule of Law vs Chaos and Autocracy

Posted on January 6, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, January 6, 2024

Both President Biden and his likely November opponent, Donald Trump, have clearly laid out their overall plans for governing if they win the 2024 election. There’s no need for input from talking media heads or so-called pundits. Both men’s statements require neither analysis nor interpretation.

Donald Trump explicitly said that Americans can expect him to begin his quest toward dictatorial rule on “day one” of his presidency. For those that claim Trump loves making outrageous statements he doesn’t really mean, we can point to dozens of instances in which he has acted and spoken as if normal rules and even laws don’t apply to him. When there’s that much smoke, responsible people know something’s on fire.

Joe Biden made his position equally clear, yesterday, at a Community College in Pennsylvania. Biden declared that the 2024 election is about whether democracy can survive repeated attacks by Trump and others in his MAGA movement.

There’s not much there to argue about. Both positions are clear enough that even intellectually lazy Americans who get their news from corrupted social media or nurse exclusively at the nipples of far-right cable news channels can plainly see them. Emotions and political bias aside, everything Donald Trump has said and done in the past eight years points to a consistent pattern. He respects, and seemingly adores all of the world’s favorite despots and wannabe autocrats. He kowtows to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and swoons over North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. His most dedicated supporters revere Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Turkey’s Recep Erdogan. The only exception is Iran, because even Trump can’t distort the truth enough to reconcile praising the Ayotollahs with the Islamophobia he fosters.

Extremist MAGA representatives in Congress and media personalities like Tucker Carlson have repeatedly stated that Orban’s Christian Democracy should replace the United States Constitution. But Orban’s politics is neither Christian nor democratic. Rather, it is based on xenophobia, religious prejudice, sexism, and racism. Orban would limit immigration to only those people who support his model, he believes in state-controlled media, and he considers leaders like himself to be exempt from judicial scrutiny. Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to destroy media outlets like the New York Times and CNN for criticizing him, is totally on board with the Orban playbook – which, incidentally, reads very much like the Fascist manifestos that brought us World War 2.

That is the existential threat President Biden has fought since he decided to oppose Trump in 2020. He has been consistent, never wavering from this message. Every piece of legislation Biden has fought for in three years has really been a struggle between what benefits the wealthy elite and what is best for every other American.

Trump has begun using Ronald Reagan’s old tag line: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” Let’s see. Is your job more secure with unemployment consistently under four percent during 2023? Have you noticed the massive construction projects repairing roads and bridges in your state? Do you have Internet access you never had before? Did you benefit from Trump’s tax cuts? Would your small business have survived COVID if not for the government payments that kept you and your employees solvent when the world was locked down? Have recent state laws limiting women’s rights to control and have access to adequate health care made your life better? Do you feel safe knowing that Trump’s party refuses to take any action to keep military-style weapons out of the hands of mass killers? Has starving the budgets of public schools improved your family’s life? And finally, there’s inflation, for which neither Trump nor Biden is to blame. It hurts everyone, but under the Biden administration, America’s economy has thrived, growing jobs and wages, more than any other industrialized nation’s.

If you’d like a peek into the crystal ball of America’s future, look at the priorities of the MAGA extremists today. They understand that immigration is a volatile issue, and that Trump will benefit if they can convince Americans that Biden is to blame for our broken system, yet they have refused to approve any of the funding Biden requested to fortify our border and the men and women who police it. They are willing to bring our government to a halt even if it means abandoning NATO’s attempts to fend off Russian aggression and weakening Israel in its war against Hamas terrorism, and by proxy, Iran. All this in the name of power-grabbing.

If that’s the kind of America you want, Trump’s your man. But if you believe in the principles of the country you grew up in, remember that he’s the one trying to destroy it, while Biden is fully committed to saving it.

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New Year, Old Problems

Posted on January 2, 2024 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, January 2, 2024

2023 was a chilling precursor to 2024. There were a few short crescendos, brief periods of tension as we waited to see whether Georgia, New York, and the U. S. Department of Justice would indict Donald Trump and proceed toward trials. An even more intense crescendo as right-wing extremists in Congress chose to hold aid to Ukraine against Russia’s aggression hostage in its desperate attempt to find credibility in its demands to control our southern border and sharply cut entitlement programs. And finally, the day-to-day struggle as President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken tight-roped from capital to capital to keep the Israel-Hamas war from encompassing the entire Middle East.

None of those issues reached resolution in 2023. At no time since the end of World War 2 has our country faced so many existential challenges simultaneously, so the Biden administration will have to act decisively and effectively while constantly under attack by an unusually unscrupulous opposition party during this election year. 2024 is going to be an ongoing struggle between political self-interest and the future of our country.

The presidential election will capture most of our attention, as an aging president who has done a remarkable job of repairing our economy and strengthening our alliances seeks re-election amid doubts that he can remain effective beginning a second term at 82. On the Republican side will be an unprecedented primary season as Donald Trump, who has spent a lifetime putting himself ahead of everything and everyone around him, is being tried under ninety-one criminal indictments, most of which are for felonies. Since his best hopes to avoid convictions are convincing the Supreme Court to grant him immunity and delaying his trials until after the election, court battles will dominate our politics all year. If the courts support Trump, it could be a disaster that destroys everything our country stands for. Even if he’s unsuccessful, the chaos he creates can only weaken confidence in the election.

If Trump somehow loses the nomination, the winner will be former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who doesn’t understand that the Civil War was about slavery, current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has the charisma of a charging bull and whose views are more racist and dictatorial than Trump’s, right-wing extremist billionaire Vivek Ramaswami, who most of us never heard of, or former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, whose bombastic attacks on Trump are undermined by having fallen on his sword for Trump eight years ago.

Both Ramaswami and DeSantis view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as something we should stay out of, a point of view that could bring America and Europe into direct conflict with Russia. And while they all attack each other and Biden, another government shut-down looms, as the small right-wing minority in Congress attempts to take advantage of the infighting to tyrannize the rest of the country, and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire kick off the primary season.

All this will happen against a backdrop of conflicting versions of the truth. One of Trump’s best known and most effective tactics for achieving his ends is to lie and project his own immoral and criminal behavior onto everyone else, supported by several major news outlets that do the same thing. Add to the mix the foreign actors that employ skilled hackers and internet influencers who infiltrate our social media to spread misinformation and discord. Facebook has made some token effort to control these, but Elon Musk, who bought Twitter and renamed it X, has declared that it will be a platform for free speech with no vetting or controls.

There’s little we as Americans can do to affect the behavior of the candidates and even less about the attempts of foreign governments to undermine our election. But there’s a lot we can and must do to protect ourselves from them. Since Trump became a politician, millions of Americans have shown themselves to be susceptible to the chaos and lies. That simply has to stop. Americans must overcome the ennui they’ve displayed, the sheer intellectual laziness that results in people believing lies and failing to learn the facts for themselves.

There’s an as yet unproved theory that it’s not necessary to physically invade or attack America to destroy it. All our enemies have to do is sow divisiveness, fear, and anger, and let hate, prejudice, and racism do the rest, and we’ll destroy ourselves from within. There’s a new film on Netflix, Leave the World Behind, that makes the point effectively. The problem our generation faces is that we were raised to believe that America was where the good guys lived and that would magically make us invincible. Neither statement is true. To survive, we all need to find our own truth and use our power to vote.

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A December to Remember

Posted on December 20, 2023 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, December 20, 2023

With twelve days remaining in 2023, it was clear that this was not going to be a typical December. The financial markets were completing a nine-day winning streak with record levels of the major indices, while the extremist wing of the Republican Party, bolstered by right-wing news outlets, continued to scream that our economy was on the verge of collapse and the Biden administration was destroying the country. This, in spite of unemployment remaining at fifty-year lows, our infrastructure being rebuilt, and the terrible inflation that resulted from COVID and the war in Ukraine having finally eased.  

Many food prices remain high, but staples like milk, eggs, and most produce are back around pre-COVID levels. And although Russia still holds Europe hostage over oil and natural gas supplies, war rages in the Middle East, and Iran-sponsored terrorists are attacking commercial shipping including oil tankers in the Red Sea, gasoline prices have plummeted. I paid $2.69 a gallon a few days ago.

All this is a backdrop to the rapidly approaching primary season which will be unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes. Precedents are being set every day that history will record as the opening act of a desperate fight to preserve American democracy and our Constitution. After eight years of divisive rhetoric and warnings of existential threats to our country, it’s finally happening. There’s no turning back, and everything we’ve held dear about America hangs in the balance.

Within the next two weeks, overshadowing the Christmas and New Years holidays, the U. S. Supreme Court will likely decide our political future. At issue is whether Donald Trump’s actions since the 2020 election make him ineligible to serve as president again. The Court will have to rule on whether the Colorado Supreme Court was correct in ruling that Trump should be removed from the ballot in that state because he incited the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol. Simultaneously, it will have to respond to Trump’s argument that he has total immunity for any crimes he committed while serving as president.

The Court obviously recognizes the need to resolve these issues before the Iowa caucus on January 4th. No one has to be reminded that the current Court has a 6-3 Conservative majority with three of the right-leaning justices having been appointed by Trump, who expects them to be loyal to the man who put them there.

I find it particularly noteworthy that on the day the Colorado court ruled that Trump was ineligible to run for president, the Dow Jones average was up 260 points, capping an unprecedented rise in value. Anyone who understands our financial markets knows that winning streaks like the one we are seeing generally reflect the moods of major corporations and the wealthiest Americans who are the real movers of our economy. I believe that despite the noise on Fox News, the silent majority of wealth and power in our country would prefer that Trump disappear.

Whatever the Supreme Court rules, we are in for a perfect storm of chaos and unpredictability between now and next year’s election. If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is ineligible to ever hold federal office again, the Republican Party will find itself without a putative leader. The new frontrunner would arguably be Nikki Haley, with Ron DeSantis and Chris Christy nipping at her heels. (I cannot take Vivek Ramaswami’s candidacy seriously.) One of those three would face off against President Biden in November, which will certainly invite a challenge from one of the groups hoping to run an independent centrist candidate against them. This election will likely determine whether the Republican Party exists as a viable cohesive force beyond 2024.

Americans want to celebrate Christmas with their families, party on New Years Eve, and spend the next day watching football or shopping the post-holiday sales. But the mess we’re facing isn’t going away, and unless you spend the holidays in an underground bunker with no internet, it’s going to tarnish all that for many of us, and it should. The best investment we can make in our families’ futures is to remain engaged, because what happens in the next two weeks may determine the course of their lives. The only thing we can be certain of is that whatever we defined as normal American life will no longer exist if we’re not vigilant about protecting it.

Two months ago, Israelis were pursuing their lives, much as we were here in America, although they knew that could end at any moment. One serious act of unimaginable terror that eclipsed our nine-eleven changed everything. A country of ten million people now has almost seven percent of its population actively fighting a war that could determine their ultimate survival. Do you think that couldn’t happen here?

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A Primer for Defeating Trump

Posted on December 16, 2023 by alanpzendell

Alan Zendell, December 16, 2023

In 2016, Donald Trump introduced a brash, profane style of campaigning that relied on insults, slander, and chaos. He lied pathologically and bragged about it. He knew millions of Americans felt disenfranchised or otherwise left behind by both major parties, and they were angry. He knew millions of evangelists were like lemmings led by corrupt churches who could be won over by promising to outlaw abortion. He knew millions more were ignorant racists looking for a messiah to tell them expressing their hate was okay.

Trump’s two most impressive talents are shameless pandering and his ability to sense other people’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities. He uses them so ruthlessly and consistently, everyone can see it, but it doesn’t matter. His supporters know exactly what he is, but they allow him to prey on their personal needs, prejudices, and desires. Thus, they’re ripe for Trump’s selfishness and narcissism. His supporters feel enabled to behave as he does.

Far more people despise Trump than admire him. If not for our irrational nomination processes,  our anachronistic Electoral College, and extreme gerrymandering which conservative courts are not inclined to curb, Trump would never be elected. If we were a true democracy in which every citizen’s vote carried equal weight, Trump would never obtain a majority because most Americans are fundamentally decent, and he is the antithesis of decency.

While a small minority of extremists are only too happy to carry Trump’s water for him, and several media outlets find it profitable to promote and agree with everything he does, I believe  most Republicans find him disgusting. Yet, they’ve been unable or unwilling to do what is required to silence him. In 2016, they were like deer caught in his headlights. They had no idea how to deal with him, and their own huge egos made the idea of banding together to defeat him a nonstarter. Consolidating behind one candidate would have meant all the others had to back out. We know how that combination of selfishness and cowardice turned out.

The 2020 Republican primaries were simpler because Trump was an incumbent. If the others seeking the nomination couldn’t coalesce behind a single contender in 2016, it was virtually impossible in 2020. To the great misfortune of Americans who believe in democracy and decency, the 2024 candidates seem no more able to stop Trump than their predecessors.

Vivek Ramaswami is an egomaniac whose views are in some ways more extreme than Trump’s, and like many billionaires, he has nothing to lose by pursuing his campaign. Ron DeSantis has an equally huge ego and may be even more dangerous than Trump. His only serious criticism of Trump is that he’s been a consistent loser since 2016. And Chris Christy, despite his bombast and loud condemnation of Trump, has no credibility. In 2016, salivating for a position in Trump’s Cabinet, he became one of Trump’s lapdogs, prostrating and embarrassing himself. Turning on Trump now shows as little integrity as Trump’s former fixer, Michael Cohen’s sudden grasp for respectability – or was it the money his tell-all book made?

That leaves Nikki Haley. The former South Carolina Governor and UN ambassador is smart, talented, and self-assured. She has a grasp of the major issues facing the country and is able to conduct herself like a mature adult who cares about people. I disagree with almost every aspect of her political ideology, although she deserves credit for being committed to NATO and supporting Israel. She’s not my choice to be president, but she’s the best hope for silencing Trump, and that’s no small thing.

The question most of us who believe Joe Biden has been a successful and productive president need to answer is whether we want him running against Haley, who the polls suggest has a better chance of winning than Trump. Is it more important to annul Trump’s influence or to assure Biden’s re-election? I like Biden, but I like America more, and America will be very much at risk if Trump wins again.

The good news is that there’s a way to beat Trump, and Democrats and Independent don’t have to rely on Republicans to do it. If you live in a state with an open primary system you can vote in either party’s primary. Since Biden is running unopposed, voting in the Democratic primary is meaningless. Use your vote to get behind Nikki Haley. If your state has a closed primary system, simply register as a Republican before casting your primary vote. You can still vote for whomever you like in the general election.

In a badly divided Republican Party, Democrats and Independents have the power to clean up the mess the Republicans have made, and probably save their party for them. They may save our country as well.

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