Will Mike Johnson Support America or Putin?

Alan Zendell, December 13, 2023

Most of us had never heard of Representative Mike Johnson (R-LA) until he was suddenly voted in to replace Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House. We quickly learned that he is an evangelistic Christian whose political ideology is uncomfortably similar to that of the MAGA terrorists who held McCarthy hostage and eventually ousted him as Speaker. The unanswered question was whether parallel ideologies implied similar temperaments and agendas.

In his first test, Speaker Johnson used a strong bipartisan majority to avert a government shutdown. Well done, Mike – but before we get too happy, let’s remember that the way the shutdown was avoided was a deliberate setup for the coming debate over defending Ukraine against Russia. What was once a no-brainer has turned into a MAGA extremist extortion plot over demands for increased border security and supporting Donald Trump. We didn’t know, in September, that that battle would expand to include supporting Israel in its war with Hamas.

But let’s be generous. Johnson saved the country from the economic chaos and loss of international standing that a shutdown would have caused. And there’s also that part of  American hubris that suggests leaders who find themselves with unprecedented responsibilities can grow into the job. Some, like Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson (no relation to Mike) actually did. Rather than behave like Donald Trump, we’ll reserve judgment because this is America, where people are innocent until proven guilty.

As a committed Christian, Speaker Johnson undoubtedly recognizes all the important people in his life with great generosity at Christmas. That would be a good thing if we were assured that they were the right people. But as things stood, today, although there is a substantial bipartisan majority in Congress and among voters who believe that continuing support for Ukraine is essential, the tiny MAGA minority that has already done so much damage to Congress’ reputation, is willing to hold Ukraine hostage until they get what they want.

It’s not clear which way Johnson will go on Ukraine. Is he all in on the MAGA border demands or is he extending the debate so the extremists can’t complain that they weren’t given a voice? Does he value our national security and preserving America’s role in maintaining the balance of power that has averted a third world war for seventy-eight years, or is hurting the Biden administration to help Trump win in 2024 his first priority?

That’s what the budget fight in Congress is about. Members of the House and Senate on both sides of the aisle strongly support Ukraine and recognize the danger of allowing Russia to win. American and European military leaders warn, every day, that a Russian victory in Ukraine could upset the entire world order, strengthening Russia, Iran, and North Korea, weakening our attempts to keep China from dominating east Asia, and irreparably damaging NATO.

Not once in his brief political career has Donald Trump treated Vladimir Putin as the dangerous adversary he is. His extreme narcissism, which causes him to crave acceptance by the dictators who would destroy our democracy and his lust for wealth he believes he can obtain by sucking up to Putin make Trump incredibly dangerous. As long as his base controls the Republican Party, the peril he would place us in will be the centerpiece of every political decision between now and the next election.

That’s quintessential Trump, making every decision on the basis of what’s best for him, and the Hell with the country and everyone else in it. The coalition of Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar and the other MAGA extortionists is single-mindedly focused on their domestic agenda of banning abortion, sealing our southern border, and assuring that their wealthy donors don’t pay taxes. To that end, turning a blind eye to what nearly everyone involved in national security policy views as critical is tantamount to treason.

It remains to be seen whether Speaker Johnson a smarter, more refined version of Matt Gaetz, or his highest loyalty is to the Constitution and the republic he swore to defend. I hope he will turn out to be this decade’s Lyndon Johnson. He laid the groundwork for that by stating publicly that what he needs, if he is to support giving Ukraine the weapons it requires, is a clear definition of what would constitute victory and a plan for achieving it. For his part, President Biden said today that he’s willing to make significant concessions on border security to get the aid packages for Ukraine and Israel done.

Both men thus drew the boundaries of a reasonable negotiation. If the MAGA crew chooses to be unreasonable, Johnson can overrule them and bring the aid bill to the floor, where it will surely pass. That would really be growing into the job of Speaker. The other choice, according to most experts, would give Putin a Christmas present we will all regret.

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The Supreme Court Must Choose Integrity Over Loyalty to Trump

Alan Zendell, December 12, 2023

When Donald Trump’s lawyers filed a motion that the criminal charges against him should be dropped because as a former president he should be immune from prosecution for any alleged crimes he committed while he was in office, they didn’t expect a favorable decision, and so far they haven’t received one. Trial Judge Tanya Chutkan denied the motion, writing: “Defendant’s four-year service as Commander in Chief did not bestow on him the divine right of kings to evade the criminal accountability that governs his fellow citizens.”

Her decision demonstrated that she understands the Constitution and remembers what the American Revolution was all about. It was primarily about assuring that neither the British monarchy nor any other would ever rule over the United States and assuring that all citizens had a vote in choosing their president. Unfortunately, in 1779, “all citizens” meant white, male landowners, but let’s not quibble. It only took 141 years to correct that oversight. It could all be undone in a matter of months.

Trump didn’t expect to win that battle. The filing was simply a key part of his legal defense strategy to delay his criminal trials until after the 2024 election. Should Trump be re-elected, he would be immune from prosecution for four more years, and in the view of many legal scholars, could pardon himself for all past and future crimes. Judge Chutkan knew that maintaining the scheduled March 4, 2024 trial date was essential if American voters were to know whether Trump was guilty of serious felonies before Election Day.

Special Counsel Jack Smith, the well-respected prosecutor who is managing the DOJ indictments and trials of Trump, also understood Trump’s defense strategy, and knew that it would likely be successful unless he took action to avert what might have been a years-long adjudication of Trump’s claim. Instead of waiting for Trump to appeal Judge Chutkan’s ruling, he petitioned the U. S. Supreme Court to take up the question in an expedited fashion.

Two critically important things are at stake. One is the question of the Court’s integrity. The other is the fate of our democracy, should the Court choose loyalty to Trump over preserving the Constitution’s intent that no one is above the law. We don’t yet know if the Court will grant Smith’s request, but in a hopeful sign, it ordered Trump to respond to Smith’s petition by December 20th.

Most of us knew, on the day Trump descended the escalator in Trump Tower spewing hate and racist taunts, that he was a threat to our democracy. An extreme narcissist skilled in the use of Orwellian Doublespeak, Trump has always known that chaos, obfuscation, and confusion were his greatest allies. He has never been about truth, laws, or facts. He responds only to the demands of his ego, and his own recent statements make it clear that he has visions of being a dictator should he win re-election.

It took Adolf Hitler only four months to subvert and undermine the court system he had been elected to defend, and before long, his Brownshirt militias were marching through the streets of German cities intimidating anyone who didn’t bend a knee to the Fuhrer. If Trump escapes prosecution and wins re-election, the insurrection at the Capitol may turn out to be only the first act in a second American Revolution, in which The Proud Boys evolve into an American Gestapo. As long as Trump retained a rabid base driven by rage and hate, it had to come to this eventually. Jack Smith’s Hail Mary to SCOTUS simply brought matters to a head sooner than we anticipated.

If the Supreme Court grants Trump monarchic immunity from prosecution, they will essentially end the basic protections in the Constitution that underpin our republic. A president with Trump’s values and personality disorders who believes he has the power to act with impunity at all times will do exactly what he told us he would do. He will appoint an army of sycophants and thugs, order them to violate any laws he finds inconvenient, and use his presidential pardon power to assure their continued loyalty.

We were raised to believe the United States was special. We weren’t like other countries, and no matter what the challenge our anointed status somehow made us immune to insurrection and political coups. But every civilization that had the hubris to believe it had reached a level of presumed enlightenment quickly devolved into decadence, corruption of values, and eventually total collapse. If you think it can’t happen here, check out Sinclair Lewis’ famous novel of the same name, or Margaret Atwood’s A Handmaid’s Tale. It surely can, and it will if people like Trump are permitted to go unpunished for their crimes and people like us sit by and do nothing to stop it.

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Have We Forgotten?

Alan Zendell, December 7, 2023

Shortly after nine-eleven, a Seattle Times columnist of Japanese descent sardonically thanked ISIS for committing an act so heinous, it would eventually make Americans forget the attack on Pearl Harbor. It seems he was correct. Today, on December 7th, the eighty-third anniversary of the attack, I searched the CNN website for “Pearl Harbor.” I got “No Results Found.”

Are you surprised? While many people hold grudges and remember personal grievances for decades, as a society, we have a tendency to erase bad memories. I guess I’ve forgiven Japan – I’ve driven nothing but Toyotas since 2006, but forgiving is not the same as forgetting. Millions of people around the world deny that the Nazi holocaust ever happened, which is why the motto of the Jewish survivors is “Never forget!”

Psychologists tell us humans naturally try to suppress their memories of traumatic events. It’s a defense mechanism vital for our mental health. But purging our day-to-day memories of painful events does not expunge them from history. We’re taught that if we ignore the lessons of history, the errors of the past will be repeated, but our teachers failed to mention that burgeoning new technologies make each repetition more deadly.

Today, I’m focused on four lessons we cannot afford to forget:
• Appeasing aggressors never works. It simply encourages them.
• Freedom and democracy are not free. They must be constantly worked at and defended, or they will disappear.
• The rules of war only apply when all sides abide by them. Corollary: in modern warfare, no one is a civilian.
• Racism and bigotry never die. They just retreat into the dark recesses of society and fester.

When America elected President Barrack Obama, many of us believed it was a sign that we had evolved past the legacy of slavery. We were shocked out of our naivete when Donald Trump proved that personal grievances, bigotry, and hate were not only still alive and well in America, but they existed in sufficient numbers to give him the presidency. We took our eyes off the ball, and we can’t even estimate what that will cost us as a nation.

Fascism nearly destroyed civilization in the twentieth century. Had the Axis Powers won – for example, had the Germans or Japanese developed the atom bomb before we did – the entire planet might today be dominated by competing autocracies. On one hand, we’d like to forget all that, yet our entertainment media are flooded with every conceivable kind of dystopian future. We suppress our fears and then live our nightmares in films, video games, and limitless exploitive media. That ought to tell us something.

Today, we see the results of our failure to heed the lessons of history in three critical arenas. Vladimir Putin showed us that paranoia, lust for power, and unbridled ambition will always fill every vacuum created by apathy and laziness. Russia’s war in Ukraine is this century’s Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia. By not meeting force with force in 1939, Allied leaders allowed the war to grow until it consumed whole countries and resulted in more than 20 million military and 50 million civilian deaths. If we do not prevent Russia from destroying Ukraine, there is little doubt that NATO countries will become directly involved with an ever-increasing risk of nuclear war. Yet, extremist politicians who represent a minority of Americans are hamstringing our ability to defeat Putin. They’d rather fight over abortion, rig elections, and blame each other for bad immigration policies for which both sides are culpable.

It took eight decades to forget the lessons of World War 2, but it only took two months for the world to forget the atrocities Hamas committed on October 7th. Less than nine weeks ago, the world understood that Hamas, a terrorist organization whose principal purpose is the destruction of Israel, hides among its own civilians using them as human shields. Hamas knew its murderous attacks on innocent Israeli civilians would leave Israel no choice but to destroy the infrastructure they had built in Gaza. No one denied Israel’s right to defend itself and to destroy the entity that had sworn to exterminate Jews in the Middle East, knowing full well that Hamas had set its own population up as sacrificial lambs. Yet, the same extremist politicians who would abandon Ukraine are now willing to abandon our only reliable ally in the Region.

Now, the same small minority of right-wing extremists in our Congress seem unanimously committed to putting Donald Trump back in the White House. They understand and applaud Trump’s promises to abandon the protections of our Constitution and remain in power indefinitely. There are no longer any mysteries surrounding Donald Trump. His base is solidly behind him. If the rest of us either forget the lessons of history or simply decide that protecting our democracy is too much trouble, we will create our own dystopian future.

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New Years Resolutions in December

Alan Zendell, December 6, 2023

We’ve finally put all those Thanksgiving leftovers into the past, but not, I hope, a clear understanding of what we should be thankful for. Most years it’s loving family and friends. This year was no exception, yet there was a higher priority. Because it faces its greatest threat in more than a century-and-a-half, what was foremost in my mind was what growing up under the Constitution of the United States has meant to the grandchildren of immigrants who fled oppression in Eastern Europe a century ago.

Rather than languish in the between-holidays purgatory of early December, we should be making our New Years Resolutions now. Instead of waiting until we’ve gained ten pounds of holiday weight and then righteously vowing to take them off, why don’t we focus on what each of us can do to save our democracy? If we wait until January to get involved, the heavily funded MAGA pros will have already laid the groundwork for a Trump march through the Primaries.

Yesterday, addressing what a 2024 Trump victory would look like, former Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) warned Americans that if Trump wins, our 2024 vote may be the last one we ever cast. Cheney, a principled conservative, reminded me that a leader’s integrity is far more important than her political ideology. As Rachel Maddow said about interviewing Cheney, any issue on which two people whose governing philosophies were as opposite as theirs could agree must be critically important and dangerous.

Maddow and Cheney are both correct, and I was encouraged when Heather Richardson’s Letters From an American reported that their interview was watched by sixty percent more viewers that Sean Hannity’s interview with Donald Trump. On the other hand, despite Hannity trying his best to give Trump an offramp from his recent autocratic rants, when Trump was offered a chance to assure America that he would not be a dictator, he said, “Not until day one.”

If Trump is re-elected, future historians will liken Americans to lemmings following the Pied Piper over a cliff. The future couldn’t be clearer. Trump’s entire governing philosophy can be expressed in three words: self over country. Remember his tour of the Normandy battlefields with his former Chief of Staff, John Kelly? The latter reported that Trump viewed all the GIs who perished on D-Day as losers and suckers. “What was in it for them?” he asked Kelly.

Everything Trump does is transactional. Every decision is based on what will increase his power and wealth. The welfare of the nation and the rest of us only matters when they happen to coincide with whatever satisfies Trump’s desperate narcissism on any given day. Trump lobbied the House to shut down the government because he thought it would weaken President Biden, no matter what harm it would have done to our economy and international standing. He’s lobbying Speaker Mike Johnson to withhold funding for defending Ukraine against Russia, because he is more concerned with having Vladimir Putin as his political ally than protecting NATO and Europe from Russian expansionism. If Trump arranges for Putin to occupy Ukraine, he might even get to build a hotel with his name on it in Moscow.

We’re used to making hard decisions; we’ve been doing it all our lives. Who should I marry? Where should I live? Which cruise line is best? But our biggest decision in 2024 will be a no-brainer. Every court at every level that has had a role in verifying Joe Biden’s defeat of Trump in 2020 has ruled that Trump’s claims of fraud and election hijacking were false, and we all saw and heard his attempt to undermine the Constitution and our democracy on January 6, 2021. He boasts continually that if he wins in 2024, his second term will be a bloodbath of retribution against anyone he perceives as an enemy. If that doesn’t sound familiar, let me direct you to Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, Kim Jong Un, and Xi Jinping.

Ironically, our best hope for the future may be in whether Liz Cheney’s lesson applies to the Trump-stacked Supreme Court. He appointed three extremist justices, clearly expecting them to pay him back with loyalty whenever a case involving his power comes before them. His likely criminal and civil trial convictions will ultimately be appealed to SCOTUS as will challenges to Trump’s presence on several state ballots.

No one can predict what the Supreme Court will do, but in the end the responsibility to save our democracy lies with us. I’ve never had an easier decision in my entire life. Any vote against Donald Trump, any action, short of the kind of violence he would support, that reduces the chance that he will ever hold power again is more important than anything else we do next year.

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Hate

Alan Zendell, November 18, 2023

I hate rattlesnakes, lima beans, heights, war, avarice, bigotry, lies, terrorism, and hypocrisy. The only thing that eclectic list has in common is that hating the things on it involves no moral dilemma and hurts no one. Hating people is an entirely different thing. For me to hate someone, there has to be a sense of genuine evil about them. The number of people I have truly hated (Adolf Hitler comes to mind) can be counted on one hand, and in no case did it have anything to do with race, color, or religion.

I grew up in a Jewish family in the aftermath of the Holocaust. If ever there was a reason to feel hatred and a desire for revenge…yet, even as a child, I understood that to hate blindly, to allow grief and rage to overwhelm our reason and screen out everything else is a profound and usually pointless exercise that hurts everyone. Too often, we find ourselves emulating the very thing that caused the hate in the first place.

I received my first lessons in anti-Semitism as an undergraduate at Columbia University. As a seventeen-year-old freshman in 1960, four years before the Civil Rights Act was passed, I worked at the Thomas J. Watson Laboratory, IBM’s main research facility applying solid state physics to computer development. On my first day, my boss, an otherwise pleasant, likable guy, informed me that since I was Jewish, IBM policy was that the only place I could be employed was the stockroom…unless, I had a PhD in Physics. Most of the senior researchers were Jewish.

Three years later, I worked at a NASA research institute located on campus as an assistant to a prominent German scientist who was in New York on a NATO contract. In his mid-thirties, he’d been a teenager when WW2 ended. His secretary, a young Jewish woman, was terrified of him. Poor Esther trembled every time she entered his office, and he, being a very decent and gentle man, was extremely troubled by her reaction to him. It was unproductive for everyone, but credit both Esther and the Professor; an hour of open communication was all it took to resolve the problem.

I have witnessed the entire existence of the nation of Israel. I’ve struggled to understand the hate and bigotry that has surrounded that country since it was born in 1948. The blind hatred of the Arab world, which caused every other country in the Mideast to declare war on Israel on its first day of existence, based solely on the fact that Israel became the homeland for Jews who survived the Holocaust, has confounded everyone who wishes to live in peace.

Even so, many of us who unconditionally supported Israel during that entire time also recognized the plight of the Palestinian people, which dates back long before Israel existed. The British, in the waning days of empire, had dominion over the Middle East between the two world wars. From that time until today, every governing authority, from the British protectors to every Arab nation in the region treated Palestinians as refugees with no inherent value, although there’s considerable evidence that Palestinians have in many ways surpassed their Arab neighbors in educating and caring for their people. The tension between Israelis and Palestinians is a legacy inherited from a time when Jews had no country of their own.

By 1990, a young generation of Israelis was tired of war and eager to reach an accommodation with their neighbors. But the influx of millions of Jews fleeing the defunct Soviet Union who had lived under Communist oppression all their lives, changed Israeli politics and gave birth to the extremist movement that brought current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prominence. Many of us who support Israel recognize that Netanyahu has not been a positive force for peace. He is responsible for the ever-expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank that are a clear violation of international law, and he has not been shy about his intentions to annex large portions of Palestinian territory into Israel. He has done nothing to stop militant Israelis from attacking mosques and spreading the same kind of hate-based propaganda his enemies use.

That said, the actions of Hamas clearly fall into the category of genuine evil. After literally centuries of provocations on every side, the region has turned into an intercine brawl in which it no longer matters who cast the first stone. Responsible world leaders, even in Iran, know Hamas’ dream of a worldwide uprising against Jews must be ended. There are mountains of grievances on all sides, and Arab countries, who have survived on the world’s need for oil, are beginning to recognize that their future will benefit from cooperation with Israel. Even religious fervor takes a back seat to money and power.

As both anti-Semitism and anti-Arab hate rise in America, I’m struck by a personal reaction with a sixteen-year-old boy I was tutoring. Dark-skinned and Muslim, he was a big, strong kid with an even bigger heart. I was shocked to find him in tears one day, and after some probing, he revealed that there was a group of militant Jewish kids in his high school that targeted and persecuted him. An investigation by school authorities proved he was telling the truth. I took that very personally. Hate and hypocrisy have no place in my religion any more than any other.

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Can Speaker Johnson Stand Up To MAGA?

Alan Zendell, November 13, 2023

Human nature is a fascinating thing. We are simultaneously horrified by and drawn to all manner of mayhem. No one wants to see their friends and family hacked to pieces, yet chain saw massacre and zombie horror films invariably go to the top of the charts. We hate war, yet we’re mesmerized by scenes of combat and destruction. We want our government and military to function effectively, yet we elect people to high office who promise to burn it all down, regardless of the consequences.

Less than a year away from an election that has existential implications for our democratic republic, our elected leaders have reached an impasse that seems unsolvable as long as they continue business as usual. The problem, as always when dealing with human nature, is conflicting loyalties. We hope our leaders can rise above them, but it is clearer every day that most of them can’t. We grew up believing they were a different breed, capable of putting aside petty differences and personal biases when the country needed them to, but eight years of Donald Trump’s MAGA movement proved that they’re not.

We watch in horror as the majority of the Republican Caucus in the House of Representatives allows a small minority of extremists who abhor both the Constitution and the idea of majority rule prevent our government from functioning. They know what must be done, but for most of them, the only things that matter are being re-elected and reaping the perks and benefits offered by lobbyists and donors. Politics always contained these elements, but now it is dominated by them.

The rest of us are part of the problem, too. We’ve become a nation of spectators. We’re accustomed to watching and waiting as others determine our future, and even then, our own values are conflicted. We are fascinated by the fundamental evil and corruption of television shows like House of Cards, The Sopranos, and Billions, and when we see the same things happening on cable news, we’re caught between the hypnotic fascination of watching a slow-motion train wreck and the reality of the consequences.

We have to stop treating the future of our country as a spectator sport, and we’re running out of time. As I write this, we are four days and thirteen hours from a government shutdown. That means that not only will all “non-essential” government functions cease indefinitely, but our ability to function militarily and diplomatically is hamstrung if not completely neutralized. Allies like Israel and Ukraine will continue to see their nations threatened, while member nations in all of our alliances lose confidence in our reliability as partners, and our adversaries savor our weaknesses and vulnerabilities.

The new, and likely temporary Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson has roots that go deep into conservative Christian beliefs about abortion and gender roles, as well as a long-standing commitment to minimizing the size of government. He owes his election to the Speakership to the extremist MAGA gang that ousted Kevin McCarthy, and to maintain their support, he has come up with a plan for funding the government that he knows will be dead on arrival in both the Senate and the White House. He’s living under the same reign of terror that has existed since the Republicans won a five-seat majority, and there’s little reason to believe the terrorists in his Caucus will back down voluntarily.

Most of the country has been waiting for sane, Conservative Republicans, who are still the majority in their party, to assert themselves and stop fearing about Trump’s base. It’s time for Kevin McCarthy to stop feeling sorry for himself and step up to the plate. He whiffed in his last at bat, but he has another chance to unite his party and demonstrate that his priorities are serving the nation and upholding the Constitution.

Or, perish the thought, they can all consider the radical notion of bipartisan cooperation. As it becomes more and more likely that by election day, Donald Trump will be a convicted felon whose business empire is being dismantled because of decades of multi-million-dollar fraud, it’s time for those in Congress who hate him but still fear him to grow some balls. If they don’t have the stomach to fight back against the MAGA movement, how can we trust them to lead us through wars and keep the country safe and secure during what promises to be one of the most chaotic and violent election years in our history?

Speaker Johnson can fix this. All he needs to do is put forth a budget proposal like the one his colleagues in the Senate support and that most Democrats in the House will vote for. That’s not a crime, Mr. Johnson, it’s the way things are supposed to work, and it will relegate the MAGA minority to its proper place in our politics.

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Veterans’ Day Highlights a National Crisis

Alan Zendell, November 10, 2023

My state is celebrating Veterans’ Day today. That naturally brings up the challenges currently facing our military. In an unusual twist, this year, those challenges go hand-in-hand with challenges facing every aspect of American life. Our military is arguably the only thing protecting the western world from domination by the expansionist ambitions of Russia and China, and militant Islamic extremists who are bent on destroying everything the Judeo-Christian world represents.

The Biden administration has been building new alliances in the South Pacific, the region around the South China Sea, and South America, partly because that’s the best way to prevent Chinese and Russian incursions, but also because America doesn’t have the resources to protect everyone. Without alliances based on common interest and economic benefit, individual nations are not likely to be able to stand against Chinese expansionism, for one. Based on the effort and resources it’s taken to defend Ukraine for the last twenty-one months, it’s difficult to imagine even NATO and a united Europe being able to defend themselves against Russia without American support.

America’s role as defender of freedom and democracy has never been clearer than it is today. Two of our eleven aircraft carrier groups are in the Mediterranean as a deterrent to anyone trying to expand conflict in Gaza. NATO forces, including American military personnel are on alert in every country bordering Russia and Ukraine. And while all this is happening, right-wing extremists within our own government are doing everything they can to hamstring our military.

Tommy Tuberville, whose vast experience as a football coach won him one of Alabama’s Senate seats, has been a one-man wrecking crew standing in the way of hundreds of overdue military promotions, many of which were to fill critical vacancies. Tuberville exposed a serious flaw in the way our government functions. How is it possible that one Senator out of a hundred, with no background in military planning, has enough obstructionist power that the other ninety-nine can only watch helplessly as the Joint Chiefs tear their hair out?

The situation in the House is worse, with the country only a week away from a complete government shutdown. The Republicans who are supposed to be using their slim majority to govern decided that the best way to avert a serious crisis was to take an extended weekend break. The extremists in charge of their caucus, who include Speaker Mike Johnson, have likened any kind of bipartisan solution to treason, and although they make up less than ten percent of their own caucus, they are determined to prevent any reasonable solution that doesn’t meet every one of their demands from being voted on.

Republican extremists, whom many of their colleagues refer to as political terrorists, might as well be taking their cues from Hamas. Hamas is using two hundred plus innocent hostages to prevent the Israeli military from punishing them for their murderous assault on defenseless Israeli civilians. The MAGA wing of the House Republican Caucus is holding the entire United States government hostage, and with it the engines that drive our economy and keep us secure.

Their putative leader, Donald Trump, will spend most of the year before the 2024 election standing trial on nearly a hundred felony and civil counts. In his spare time, he eggs on the extremists and threatens defectors’ careers and families, while running for president on a platform that could have been drafted by Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini. Yesterday, he advocated framing political opponents that get in his way and using the criminal courts to neutralize them. I was shocked that even Trump would say something like that – until he added, “That’s what I would do.”

A former president who is a raging narcissist with no moral compass believes that anything he would be willing to do ought to define the rules of the game for everyone. Nothing is too craven or unethical. Whether it’s recklessly attacking anyone who opposes him, having no respect for truth, or subverting the Constitution, Trump would set the bar for competition so low our elections would look like mafia gang wars.

I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see any way the country enters the holiday season without being in a serious crisis that worsens daily. Imagine this horror show: the 2023 holiday season is projected to be the busiest travel period we’ve ever had. Consider the strain on an air traffic control system that is already short 3,000 people, operating under a government shutdown – no new positions, no respite, no training, no resources available for anything except daily operations for one of the most stressful jobs in the country. Add in a blizzard or two, and would you want to be flying over the holidays?

On this Veterans’ Day, the MAGA crew are threatening not only our service personnel, but every American who believe in our Constitution.

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No One Predicted This

November 8, 2023

This week’s election should be a wake-up call for everyone who thinks polls are valid predictors. The best we can hope for from polls, especially a full year before a presidential election, is a sense of the current trends, whether momentum seems to be shifting. But none of the major polls taken over the last few months accomplished even that.

By any objective measure, the 2023 election was both a big win for Democrats and a big loss for politicians who tied themselves to Donald Trump’s rhetoric. If you want evidence, consider two governors who are being watched as rising stars and future presidential candidates.

Republican Glenn Youngkin of Virginia had confidently staked his future and reputation as a leader on his promise to sign a law outlawing most abortions after fifteen weeks if voters delivered a Republican trifecta (control of the Assembly, Senate, and Governorship.) Before the election, Democrats controlled the state Senate by a slim margin, and Republicans controlled the House, but voters gave Democrats victories in both chambers. Polls had suggested that Youngkin’s momentum as a generally pro-Trump leader was on the rise, but support for abortion rights killed it. Ever since the Dobbs decision that reversed Roe v Wade, voters in states that put abortion rights on their ballot unanimously protected them in state laws and Constitutions. Still, pollsters didn’t seem to get the correlation between the positive momentum on that issue and its effect on statewide elections.

The vote to protect abortion rights in Ohio wasn’t shocking but the margin of victory in a state that has become continuously redder over recent decades was larger than anyone expected. Another serious momentum shift that polls should have detected but didn’t.

Then there’s Andy Beshear, the Democratic Governor of Kentucky. In 2020, Trump won Kentucky by a two-to-one margin. In 2023, Beshear ran against a powerful Republican coalition that included Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul. Yet, his margin of victory this week was twelve times larger than his first term win in 2019. The increased margin of victory is attributed to support for abortion rights and the money pouring into Kentucky from the infrastructure bill promoted and signed by President Biden last year. The polls failed to predict either the degree to which abortion lifted Beshear in one of the reddest states in the country or the general rise in his popularity. Finally, there’s the Mississippi Governor’s race. Republican incumbent Tate Reeves beat Elvis Presley’s cousin Brandon, but the margin was smaller than both Reeves’ victory in 2019 and Trump’s win over Biden in 2020.

By any measure, these results imply a rising Democratic tide, which seems to contradict the national polls that suggest Trump and Biden are running about even in the 2024 election. That’s a very serious matter, because voters are victims of our polarized media. When poll after poll suggests that the country is tending to Trump, most people believe them. But the great majority of people who unquestioningly swallow poll results really have no idea of how polls work or whether they’re likely to be accurate, and the major media outlets do little or nothing to educate their viewers. Instead, poll reports are presented like sporting events. The jargon used sounds like an account of a horse race because that builds ratings.

My years of experience with statistical sampling and prediction models leave me skeptical about the way polls are conducted today. We’re told almost daily that Trump is a shoe-in for the Republican nomination and that his popularity continues to grow in spite being on trial for ninety-one felonies, including those stemming from the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol and the obvious phenomenon that American women are furious over the Dobbs decision, which they properly, closely associate with Trump. Are the polls correct?

I ask whether the thousand or so people sampled in a typical poll are representative of America’s electorate. Who are they? Think about how we use our phones and email accounts. They are the sources of polling data. Do you answer calls from unknown callers? Do you respond to polling emails knowing that nearly all of them are just bait for fund-raising? Most of us answer “No” to both questions these days. If that’s true, how can polling results accurately reflect the view of the electorate as a whole. The notion violates every rule of statistical sampling.

This week’s election should give every voter and pollster pause. It’s a serious problem, but one that’s easily fixable, at least in part. Polling organizations are generally professional and nonpartisan, but the media they work for make no effort to provide meaningful background for voters. They all need to put political biases aside and do their jobs, informing the public accurately, and making sure we all understand that relying on polls can be dangerous.

Dewey did not beat Truman in 1948, no matter what the polls said.

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The Reality of Modern Religion

Alan Zendell, November 2, 2023

As a child, I put myself through years of religious training at a strict orthodox synagogue. It was my choice, one that horrified my parents, but it was something I had to do. My maternal grandmother, who’d fled the Cossacks in Eastern Europe and emigrated to the United States before World War 1 was a wonderful, honest woman who seemed truly devoted to her faith, but the other adults who had a hand in raising me always seemed to be faking it. Long before I could spell “hypocrite,” I was well aware of its meaning.

Of all my studies, one passage in the Old Testament made the greatest impression on me. Genesis 22 tells the story of God testing Abraham by commanding him to sacrifice his son, Isaac (cutting his throat as if he were a goat) to proof his faith. Only after Abraham raises his knife to do the awful deed, an angel intercedes and offers a ram instead.

I insisted that our rabbi and teacher explain how the story of Abraham and Isaac was a moral lesson. I’ve had that conversation with several rabbis since then, and none offered a reasonable answer. As an adult, today, it sounds like an ISIS terrorist forcing a false confession out of a hostage with a knife at his throat. Reading about Sodom and Gomorrah, and Noah and the Great Flood made it worse. The same God who terrorized Abraham murdered millions of people simply because they disobeyed him.

I concluded that the Old Testament God who I was told loved me was a psychopath, and nothing I experienced since then has changed my mind. Why is this relevant, now? Consider that all modern primates – humans, apes, orangutans, monkeys – had a common progenitor. They have a lot in common, including nearly 99% of their DNA, but it’s amazing how such different beings evolved from the same source. The Abraham of the Old Testament can be thought as the progenitor of three major religions that are followed by countries that contain more than half the world’s population.

Both Christianity and Islam grew out of Abrahamic teachings, one of which was that some day a Messiah would come. To Christians, the Messiah was Jesus, who in a twisted way re-tells the story of Abraham as God Himself sacrifices his own son to prove his love of mankind, in the process, transforming from a single entity to the Father, the Son, and the Holy Ghost. Six hundred years later, the same God who whispered in Abraham’s ear whispered in Mohammed’s, telling him that while Jesus was truly the Messiah, the Christian trinary God was blasphemy. Thus, was born Islam, a religion that seems to preach peace and love, but is interpreted by many as a call to Jihad, to cleanse the world of defilers.

As a child, I was taught that humans were created in God’s image. I was told that meant we must ascribe to a creed based on generosity and faith, when in fact, we seem to have mostly inherited His psychopathy. Christianity and Islam, or Judaism and Islam have been in a state of religious war for 1,500 years, and Jews have been persecuted by both for even longer.

Religion is the tilapia of human belief systems. Have you ever tried to eat tilapia when it wasn’t dressed up to be something else? It has no character of its own. Everyone prepares it the way that suits them, and many people reject it completely no matter how it’s presented. But unlike an unpalatable fish, organized religion is a powerful force that has been used to control and suppress people ever since terrified, ancient savages invented it. Its roots are based in fear, mysticism, and a belief in magic, much of it dark. If you belong to a small powerful elite, and you want to preserve your wealth and power, there’s no better way than weaponizing religion and using it to control the ignorant masses.

The result is the Crusades, the wars between Catholics and Protestants, the seventy-five year war that has existed between Israel and its neighbors. Even World War 2, which was a war of conquest, imperialism, and revenge, used religious hatred, mostly against Jews, to create unity among the Fascists.

The same thing is happening in the Middle East. The people driving the religious fervor of radical Islam are too venal and smart to care whether we worship Yah-weh or Allah. It’s all a paper tiger, but one with potential to destroy civilization. What if one of those crazies get their hands on a nuclear weapon? You don’t hear it mentioned much, but Israel is a nuclear power. Set one off in an Israeli city, and Israel will retaliate against Iran and all of its clients. Do you think that Hamas, which is using a city of more than a million as human shields, wouldn’t use them as nuclear hostages?

When the current war between Israel and the terrorists sponsored by Iran finally ends, and decent people try to figure out how to prevent the next one, they should take a hard look at the real symbolism of Jerusalem. As the seat of all three major religions, it should be a unifying force, not an excuse to lob rockets at each other. Whichever side they’re on, everyone who lives in the region is a victim of out-of-control religious despots, and I reluctantly include Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as a wannabe member of that group. How about we just get rid of all of them and behave like adults?

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A Disgraceful Legacy

Alan Zendell, October 29, 2023

Judging by how historians have analyzed the rise and fall of prior civilizations, it’s possible to begin to frame the legacy Donald Trump will leave behind. Whether he ultimately wins the 2024 Republican nomination for president or is convicted of any of the shocking number of felonies he is accused of committing, one part of his ultimate legacy is already clear. It’s the kind of thing cliches are made of, not something for which he will be remembered fondly. The Emperor Nero may or may not have fiddled while Rome burned, but what’s the first (and perhaps only) thing you thing of when you hear his name?

Trump will always be thought of as the politician who lowered the bar for acceptable behavior to the point where it is submerged out of sight. His narcissism will be a warning to future Americans that no one who cares more about themselves than our Constitution or the lives and well-being of all Americans can ever be allowed near the White House again. His divisiveness and appeals to the dregs of our society – neo-Nazis, White supremacists, heavily armed extremist militias – revealed a dark, shameful seam in our self-image that we may never live down.

His decisions that unnecessarily sacrificed more than a half million American lives to COVID exposed his ignorance, callousness, and a dangerous disdain for science. His personal values, fraudulent business practices, public treatment of women, pandering to assault weapon advocates, the religious right, and billionaires, and his obvious lack of respect for our military and its combat veterans paint a picture of a small, hateful human being. But the part of his legacy that will be continue to plague us long after he’s gone was his ability to redefine of the meaning of truth.

The undoing of facts, the promulgation of lies, and the self-serving work of “influencers” whose only priority was the shifting of wealth and power was well underway before Trump became a politician. Futurists, psychologists, and sociologists have long understood the risks of an unregulated internet that allows everyone from a terrorist cult leader to an immoral politician to grandma posting her favorite recipes to say whatever they please, unchecked by facts, common sense, or any sense of public responsibility.

Yet, despite their warnings, which recently morphed into a fear of Artificial Intelligence, we have allowed the things we most needed to have confidence in to erode. When every extremist point of view has its own media machine run by people skilled at tapping into hate and grievances, logic and rational thought take a back seat to slander, libel, and outright lies. We only watch news channels that agree with our biases, we don’t answer our phones or open our emails unless we recognize the caller, and even with constant vigilance, our best hope for privacy is the massiveness of the internet.

Remember when Americans respected authority figures, educators, and scientists, when there were trusted sources we could turn to for truth and fact-checking? There may not ever have been a time when money didn’t trump justice in America, but the ability of someone with millions to spend on bribes, influence peddling, and controlling Congress has never more blatantly influenced our lives … which brings us to what may be the most dangerous aspect of Trump’s legacy. Take a step back, forget your biases for a moment, and consider the spectacle we have made of ourselves before the world since Trump hijacked the Republican Party.

A man who served as president, who demonstrated that he has no regard for the Constitution he swore to defend, who is under ninety-one indictments by the federal government, one red state and one blue one, and who was impeached twice, once for inciting a violent insurrection at the Capitol aimed at overturning his 2020 election defeat is now the odds-on favorite to win his party’s nomination again. Add to that his oft-demonstrated adoration for autocrats and murderous dictators, and imagine how all this looks to people around the world.

How must our NATO allies feel about the real possibility that Trump could again be president? How must Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un relish the prospect of wrapping the ultimate narcissist around their fingers? Does the prospect of another Trump presidency and the worsening of the divisiveness he brought to America give Xi Jinping pause when he sets his sights on Taiwan? Do Trump supporters’ ability and willingness to paralyze our government strike fear in the hearts of Ayatollahs and the terrorists they sponsor?

Finally, there is the issue of moral leadership. How are we to teach our children moral values and common decency when our president sets exactly the opposite example, when our children’s textbooks are being censored and sanitized in an ever-more Orwellian reality? That’s the real legacy of Donald Trump. It reeks of dishonor and disgrace.

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