And The Winner is … China

Alan Zendell, May 7, 2026

Project 2025 and Donald Trump’s impossible to control ego have been driving his second term. As we approach the confluence of the crises Trump has put in motion, it’s important to understand that Project 2025 was a Hail Mary. The likelihood that it would replace our Constitution with a Christian Nationalist Manifesto was always relatively small, but it was the best opportunity right-wing extremists had since Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich began preparing for what is happening today, forty-five years ago.

Project 2025 and Trump 2.0 attempted a coup. Their best hope was hitting the opposition simultaneously from every direction, challenging and attempting to either kill or change everyhing they could reach. Trump went all in on the motto, “I’d rather ask for forgiveness than permission,” hitting the ground running with a long list of Executive Actions drafted for him by the Heritage Foundation, most of which had very little chance of getting past the courts. The administration knew that, but they also knew the chaos they created would paralyze any opposition, as it did for most of 2025.

We spent last year watching Trump pick fights and start wildfires everywhere he could. He was never going to win every fight, but he would do as much damage as he could. Doing damage seems to be the one thing the Trump administration is adept at. He began with a double-barreled attack on the federal government and the world economy. Under the auspices of DOGE, a fake federal agency that existed only in the minds of Trump and Elon Musk, under the guise of combating waste, fraud, and abuse, Musk was able to destroy federal agencies that Americans cared about but that the Heritage Foundation disapproved. And with the stroke of his pen, Trump upended decades of international economic stability with his tariffs.

The tariffs and most of DOGE’s actions, particularly Musk’s theft of huge trovees of Americans’ personal information from confidential government computer systems to feed his AI ventures, turned out to be illegal or unconstitutional, but reversals by the courts couldn’t prevent massive harm to 300,000 people whose careers were erased, to the philosophy of free trade and tariff-free borders, and to our alliances. After those opening salvos, Trump went after private law firms that employed people who had opposed Trump and our elite university system, attempting to control what is taught on our campuses.

To repay his friends in the coal and petroleum industries for their political donations, Trump did everything he could to kill the struggling electric vehicle industry, and terminate all government projects that supported alternative energy production like solar arrays and wind farms, despite massive evidence that carbon pollution is destroying our ice caps, changing our climate, and affecting the health of every person on Earth. Even if destroying our environment weren’t a compelling enough issue, the effect of Trump’s war with Iran on oil supplies demonstrates how wrong-headed those decisions were.

Deciding unilaterally (illegally) to change the name of the Defense Department to the War Department was symbolic of Project 2025’s attitude toward the rest of the world. No more leading the Free World or supporting alliances that prevented another world war, and no longer leading efforts for world peace and cooperation. Instead, becoming the bullies of the world, abandoning our allies and cozying up to autocrats.

Trump’s promises to end wars on day one were his biggest lies. He weakened support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, possibly dealing a mortal blow to NATO and our European allies. And instead of reining in Israel’s destruction of Gaza, he joined Israel in destroying 13,000 military and infrastructure targets in Iran, bogging us down in a war that seems to have been justified on bad or faked intelligence.

Trump is desperately trying to end the conflict against an enemy he badly underestimated and does not understand. With his approval ratings at home at record lows for any president, the midterm elections approaching, and committed to a face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping, Trump will go to China with few cards to play. His actions with respect to alternative energy made China the biggest winner in his Iran war.

China invested billions of dollars in wind and solar energy, ramping up their efforts as Trump’s war has caused severe shortages all over Asia, and placing China in the diplomatic driver’s seat. Moreover, Trump is desperate for some sign of support from Xi. It didn’t bother him when our allies (Canada, UK, Spain, Italy, Germany) criticized and backed away from him. If Xi decides it’s in China’s interest to weaken Trump further, he will have all the leverage if Trump goes to China without an Iran deal that’s better than the Obama deal Trump tore up.

Trump may be about to learn that his delusions of grandeur have caused great damage to his administration, but more seriously to the 350 million Americans he swore to defend. He unnecessarily picked fights with virtually everyone except Xi and Vladimir Putin. With the rest of the world wise to him, and having reduced our supply of strategic weapons to a dangerously low level, his power and influence ebbs internationally every day. He’ll never admit it publicly, but all those chickens are coming home to roost.

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