Alan Zendell, August 17, 2026

The Memorandum of Understanding Donald Trump signed with Iran last June officially expired today. The key word in that sentence is “officially,” since it was apparently dead on arrival, according to today’s Wall Street Journal. Even in June, when the Trump administration touted it as a major achievement that would eventually lead to negotiations that would remove any chance of Iran having a nuclear weapon, it was obvious that its vague language energized Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating in that single act that it possessed enormous leverage Trump had failed to account for.

Not surprisingly, Iran viewed the MOU quite differently. Its new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, never trusted Trump’s intention to negotiate a fair settlement, instead viewing the sixty day paused called for in he MOU as an attempt by Trump to take pressure off the world economy after it became clear that bombing Iran was not leading to a capitulation. It’s quite apparent that Trump badly misjudged Iran, ignoring his own advisors and Intelligence in favor of his gut feelings. Iran’s leaders see Trump’s approval ratings at home plummeting and can smell his fear over the upcoming midterm elections.

From Iran’s point of view, the sixty day grace period was a reprieve that allowed them to ramp up production of missiles and strengthen the Revolutionary Guard’s hold on power. Rather than lay the groundwork for negotiations, Iran never had any intention of conceding its right to develop nuclear weapons. Instead, its leaders recognized that when the MOU expired, less than eighty days would remain until Trump was likely to lose his majority in Congress, making him a lame duck as far as the war was concerned. They believe they have the upper hand long term, and it’s difficult to argue that they’re wrong.

Trump’s hands are tied by having burned through the U. S. military’s inventory of interceptor missiles at a terrifying rate and a hostile political environment at home. The entire world understands that the United States no longer has the capability to aggressively pursue the war with Iran without severely weakening our positions around the world and essentially leaving Ukraine defenseless against Russian missiles.

Trump tried to paint the cul de sac he’s trapped us in as a strategic switch to economic warfare. He tweets that he can cripple Iran’s economy and force them to capitulate, but Iran is used to economic hardship, and is apparently prepared to ride it out for as long as it takes. Trump’s latest prediction that his new approach to the war will bring Iran to its knees is no more credible than his predictions that Iran would surrender by the middle of April.

The WSJ article reports that Iran used the sixty day MOU waiting period to plan a long-term war. They are prepared to maintain their stranglehold on the flow of oil, and plan to go on the offensive against American interests. They already showed that they could hack into municipal water systems in American cities and they have caused enormous destruction to our infrastructure in American bases throughout the Persian Gulf states, destroying aircraft on the ground and injuring more than 600 American service personnel while killing seventeen. They are confident that their virtually limitless supply of cheap missiles is sufficient to maintain their hold on shipping in the Strait and continue to harass the Gulf States that host American bases. They caused great damage to oil production in those states with their missiles reaching as far as the Aramco oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

The Gulf States realize that American forces will not protect them indefinitely, and that is causing them to seek accommodations with Iran. Our so-called alliances throughout the Middle East are as transactional as everything Trump does. They know Trump will abandon them the moment defending them becomes inconvenient, just as he is threatening to abandon Europe, Ukraine, and South Korea. They know he overplayed his hand, and as Trump famously said to Volodymyr Zelensky, he no longer has the cards to pursue a military victory.

The Journal claims Iran is preparing to go on the offensive executing preemptive strikes against American interests including a possible ground invasion of Kuwait. Its missiles cannot reach the American homeland, but its cyber warfare can. Our power grids and transportation and communication systems are at risk, and there’s very little we can do to defend against determined continuous attempts to infiltrate them. Trump was caught with his pants down fighting this war from the start. He calls Iranian leaders crazy for refusing to negotiate, but either he fails to understand the damage Iran is capable of inflicting on our infrastructure and economy, or he knows he’s caught in trap of his own making, and all his tweets are simply bluster.

What did Trump do in response to the expiration of his MOU? He vowed to fight on to build his ballroom, forced the Kennedy Center Board to engrave his name of the face of the complex, and threatened to nationalize our election. Pure insanity.