Alan Zendell, October 2, 2023

Many people begin a new year by partying hard and watching football with the next day’s hangover, but there is also a tradition of atonement associated with turning over the calendar. Some make new year’s resolutions about everything from losing the weight they gained the previous year to treating family and friends better. Jews and Muslims have a prescriptive approach to atoning for past sins. Observance of the Jewish Yom Kippur and the Muslim Ashura, both of which occurred two weeks ago, includes a day of fasting and a week of self-reflection, apology, and even compensation.

Ringing in a new fiscal year is different. In recent years, the end of September has become increasingly contentious and vitriolic, with the negativity centering around the coming year’s budget. Ever since tribalism and divisiveness began defining our politics, morality, and social interactions, the beginning of a new fiscal year has been a battleground with potentially serious consequences. The government shutdown that was averted on September 30th could have done mortal damage to our economy, our military, the security of our transportation system, our trade relationships, Ukraine, and our struggle with inflation.

To some of our leaders, acknowledging past wrongs is a sign of weakness. Thus, a small minority of extremists encouraged by a former president, who care nothing about either our Constitution or their oath to govern responsibly, rung in our new fiscal year with a rear-guard action to prevent our government from functioning. The MAGA movement, led by Donald Trump and populated by people who cling to his coattails, was in full battle mode.

But Trump and his congressional wrecking crew lost a major battle on September 30th. I believe the start of FY 2024 may be the beginning of the end of MAGA proponents’ attempts to replace our republic with a fear-based autocracy. They pulled out all the stops trying to shut down the government, and they will undoubtedly continue their efforts, because Trump’s chances of winning re-election and the Republicans’ chances of controlling Congress depend on the same chaos, confusion, and lies that defined the 2020 campaign. But what Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Mitch McConnell, and Joe Biden pulled off Saturday was a clear statement that they will not permit a rabid minority to control the governance of the United States.

The new fiscal year was also marked by three other events which signal the ultimate end of Trump’s dominance of our politics. Moderate, sane Republicans in both the House and Senate finally began speaking out against the tyranny of an extremist minority and the likelihood that nominating Trump in 2024 will sink the Republican Party, not to mention the nation. And yesterday, in a powerful, passionate defense of democracy and our Constitution, retiring Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley made it clear that he believes Trump is unfit to serve again as president and represents an existential threat to America. Finally, today, Trump appeared for his civil fraud trial in New York, after viciously verbally attacking both the judge and the State Attorney General outside the courthouse.

Unless Republicans not named Trump figure out a way to stop him from getting the presidential nomination, we’re going to choose between Trump and President Biden again, next year. Some Americans, possibly a third of us, have bought into the Trump narrative, but people who identify as Independents or genuine Conservatives will be up for grabs on Election Day. That leaves me feeling pretty good, about avoiding the disaster of a second Trump presidency and forcing the MAGA movement back into its caves. Rabid supporters liken his legal struggles to the persecution of Christ, but it’s hard to imagine everyone else not abandoning him in the end.

When the best many former Trump voters can say is “I don’t like the man, but I like his policies,” I have to believe the next few months of watching him abuse judges, prosecutors, and anyone else who disagrees with him will end his reign of terror. For some, it will be what the media call “Trump fatigue.” For others it will be an overload of disgust and the realization that he really is as dangerous as his critics claim. Anyone who has a child who throws tantrums when he doesn’t get his way will ultimately recognize Trump for what he is.

If you’re a sailor, you might call this weekend a sea change. If you’re a mathematician you could think of it as a positive shift in the second derivative. If you work hard to support your family, you’ll finally realize that Trump and his cohort have no interest in you; it’s all about their egos and lust for power. If you’re everyone else, you’ll just breathe a sigh of relief when Trump goes down, defeated and bankrupt, as he deserves to be.